Dr Jimmy's kitchen

Hope to see you there

2011-12-19T14:40:00.002+02:00

Israeli "tentative" IT Market 2011

2011-12-19T14:38:00.002+02:00

HAPPY NEW YEAR

2011-09-12T04:24:00.000+03:00

2011-08-12T08:22:00.000+03:00

he Israeli Economy has entered a downward spinn that Bibi and his ministers are not talking about. Gratefully we have Bank of Israel that shows the stats in boi.gov.il (State of the Economy Index % change)

My new mobile presentation

2011-08-12T08:18:00.000+03:00

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/mobile-august-2011

What is happening now?????

2011-07-10T15:05:00.000+03:00

The Bank of Israel puts out a graph about the percent change of the Israeli "state of the economy index"....
I am following it for the last decade and it usually can forecast IT market behavior.
I cannot understand the behavior NOW........ ???????

full keynote presentation from Summit 2011

2011-04-24T17:40:00.000+03:00

Full-Keynote-Summit-2011

My final part of the presentation

2011-04-24T17:38:00.000+03:00

My presentation part 3

2011-04-24T17:10:00.002+03:00

My presentation part 2

2011-04-24T16:00:00.002+03:00

My Presentation part 1

2011-04-24T15:59:00.000+03:00

When we do a mistake ... we have no problem correcting it

2011-04-10T05:54:00.002+03:00

What companies (IT departments) does STKI cover?

2011-04-10T05:32:00.000+03:00

STKI Analysis covers over 100 categories:

2011-04-10T05:30:00.002+03:00

STKI covers about 300 vendors that work in the IT Market of Israel:

2011-04-10T05:29:00.002+03:00

STKI Methodology

2011-04-10T05:27:00.000+03:00

METHODOLOGY (Equilibrium Model)

Starting after our annual STKI Summit (this year it was our 18^th) we maintain our market model and update it (our segmentation is adjusted when the market changes) constantly.

STKI activity year goes from Summit to Summit, in other words from 1 of April till the end of March. Our summit has been scheduled at a time that all budgets have been closed and we have time to meet and discuss them with clients. At that time vendors can also discuss the past year and new strategies with us.

What does STKI do ?

2011-04-10T05:25:00.002+03:00

INTRODUCTION: How did it all start?

25 years ago when People & Computers (http://www.pc.co.il/), the Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Forecasting (http://ictaf.tau.ac.il) in Tel Aviv University together with IBM and Digital (I was in Digital at that time) tried to understand the Information Technology Market in Israel (with a clear focus on Hardware and Software Products).

The study highlighted the problems involved in making surveys in a small market with very few players. We received about 1000 interview results (by Tel Aviv University students) from vendors and users. We tried to get a result we could agree on but failed. The numbers showed that the procurement managers (although they agreed to the survey interview) distorted the truth. The vendors were sure to double or triple their sales numbers. If we added the “interview dollar results”; the amount that industries bought with what the vendors sold, there was a one to ten correlation.

After the unsuccessful first try, some of us (vendor marketing) decided to work together and try to share data that wouldn’t be used (by the others) except for the statistical results. So by 1986 we started sharing data for analysis (I am sure we all added a little to make our results better) and we started to get a picture of the market. Each one of us used the data together with their own analysis/methodology.

I tried to correlate data with account managers (sales) but found that when sales quotas are involved I couldn’t get a straight answer. I couldn’t get them to understand the difference between total IT spent and Digital’s sales potential in a certain account. Example: when an AS/400 or IBM Mainframe was in an account, Digital sales people didn’t count IBM sales in that account in their reports…. IT spent not relevant (they said).

Conclusions for the first Israeli IT Market studies:

1. Hardware and software could be checked (at that time) because there were import tariffs and they were in the public domain. The complication was that every vendor used different import categories for its products in order to minimize taxes.

2. Value added services were given as an add-on to hardware/software sales and was subsidized.

3. IT budgets sat on the table of CIOs and they were not going to share it with “students”.

4. Every vendor recognized revenue in a different way (i.e.: hardware/software recognized when installed or when used, project recognized when sold or when invoices are paid, percent of software recognized as revenue in Israel, percent of software maintenance recognized as revenue) and none represented the IT market that interested me .

5. Every user recognized his “IT expenditure” differently based on his financing, amortization and company budgets (i.e.: building, electricity, IT salaries and communication costs are not always in the IT books) and again none represented the IT market that interested me.

6. There were a lot of contractor/subcontractor relationships that blurred the real IT vendor in a project (a lot of double bookings). The vendor with the knowledge compared to the vendor that got the project.

7. Vendor evaluations in value added services should be done by a combination of the amount of employees in a certain area of expertise and the revenues in that area. Giving more value to “fixed price” projects than “cost plus with no SLA” project.

8. Israel has two areas where some of the vendors sell their products/services and none is really part of the IT Market:

a. Military Projects that are not IT projects had to be taken out of the market size. The IDF has IT units and those should be taken into account.

b. High Tech companies use computer professionals and buy software/hardware products to incorporate into their products (OEM) : this is not part of the IT Market. The same High Tech companies have IT departments and that should be counted.

9. The sum of all IT expenditures (from users) has to be equal to all IT sales (from vendors). This is called an EQUILIBRIUM MODEL. Most research firms are either a “demand-based” (market information based on data from users of IT) or “supply-based” (market information based on data from IT vendors). STKI is one of the only research firms using an equilibrium model in the world and the only one in Israel.

10. The three distinct markets (hardware, software and value added services) and their sub-parts have to be clearly defined (what it encompasses , the players and the buyers)

11. In some markets, international vendors sell direct and through partners that add value to the sale or not. We had to show the double booking and the value added.

12. This meant I had to define “Israel IT Market” so that it could be meaningful for both vendors and user departments.

13. We also understood that Public Companies presenting their annual reportsin good faith and under regulation but the financial reports do not show:

a. Real revenues of software licenses and maintenance.

b. Real revenues of hardware sales.

c. Differentiate between new projects and continuing projects revenues. New projects should count more.

d. Separate work/ products for OEMs and military non-IT projects.

e. Distinguish between work done by the vendor’s employees and work outsourced to another vendor.

f. Show the revenues from projects done in fixed price, cost plus (SLA defined) and staff augmentation (non SLA) projects.

g. Distinguish between work done by high level professionals in a project and staff augmentation employees in the clients IT department.

h. Distribution of profits between staff augmentation (highly profitable) and projects (less profitable).

STKI’s “Israeli IT Market” Definition & Model:

STKI definition of the Israeli IT market should include the following:

1. Basically we want to count everything that IT departments buy and vendors sell for the IT use in Israel.

2. While personnel expenditures of employees’ salaries is not counted, staff augmentation is counted.

3. Hardware expenditures are counted taking out any amortization and other financial amounts.

4. Software expenditures include licenses and maintenance costs.

5. Value Added Services had to neutralize contractor/subcontractor relationships and give credit for the project only to the vendor doing the actual work.

6. IT Market covers all “outside” expenditures of IT departments in Israel.

a. IT departments of multinational companies that have their headquarters in Israel are counted but not the expenses of subsidiaries outside of Israel that buy their products or services locally.

b. Only local expenditures of Israeli subsidiaries of multinationals are counted.

So what STKI analysts do during the year?

1. During the year STKI analysts meet with clients (users) and answer inquiries for them. 2010-11 we had over 600 meetings face to face with clients (CIOs and their managers) and answered over 2,000 inquiries. We also meet with groups of 15-30 users and discuss predetermined subjects (we call this round tables). Between 11/2009 till 3/2011 STKI hosted over 90 round tables. STKI runs about 30 surveys a year about subjects from security implementation to software development. In our interactions with IT users (e.g. CIOs, IT managers), our objective is to understand the role of IT in the organization and the corresponding IT strategy, as well as to gain an overview of ongoing and planned projects and strategic decisions. Furthermore, there is an exchange of thoughts on the users’ experience with IT vendors and their criteria for vendor selection.

STKI analysts are involved in:

a. Quality assessments of products and vendors

b. Strategy and architectural solutions

c. Procurement questions

d. Decisions on new technologies

e. Understand their budget

f. Help in best practices/staffing ratios for the Israeli Market

g. Much more

2. During the same time they meet with vendors and answer inquiries for them. During 2010-2011 we had over 500 face to face meetings and answered over 1,500 inquiries. We also met with over 60 vendors for vendor briefings (vendors describe their past performance and future strategies). Through the interactions with IT vendors we gain a profound understanding of the organization, portfolio, and the market positioning of the relevant vendors. This way we can assess the revenue information by different dimensions. Moreover, we discuss the market perspectives and outline our market development scenario.

STKI analysts are involved in :

a. Market understanding

b. Industries needs and projects

c. New products and services

d. Product packaging and marketing strategies

e. Much mor

So how does STKI deliver it’s research ?

To present our results we use several methods:

1. Trends and Technologies (look at STKI Summit presentations)

2. Round Table Summaries (http://www.scribd.com/drjimmys)

3. Israeli Vendor Tiers presentation s

(http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/stki-summit-2011-israeli-market-data)

4. Projects/services market positioning in over 100 categories

5. Israeli IT department Staffing Ratios

(http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/stki-it-israel-2011-staffingratios)

KM, BI and other enterprise applications presentations

2011-03-30T03:04:00.002+02:00

KM, BI and other enterprise applications presentations
http://www.slideshare.net/Einats/presentations

Infrastructure Presentations

2011-03-30T03:03:00.000+02:00

Infrastructure Presentations

http://www.slideshare.net/pini/presentations

Security and other Infrastructure Services presentations

2011-03-30T03:02:00.000+02:00

Security and other Infrastructure Services presentations

http://www.slideshare.net/shaharmaor/presentations

Keynote at STKI Summit 2011

2011-03-29T12:09:00.000+02:00

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/dr-jimmy-schwarzkopf-keynote-stki-summit-2011

Israeli Market Presentation

2011-03-29T12:07:00.000+02:00

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/stki-summit-2011-israeli-market-data

STKI Tiers......

2011-03-29T08:46:00.003+02:00

As always (I have been doing this for over 25 years) vendors are angry with STKI about how we saw them in the tier research.

I know that the work is not perfect but it is the best that I can do.

I talked (personally) to over 130 CIO)s about what they did in 2010 and which companies did the work and how was it done: staff augmentation, time and materials or fix price. What was the scope of the projects, etc. The other 4 analysts did interviews and surveys to about 300 separate companies.

All the analysts sat with the vendors in a session called vendor briefing... during that session vendors went over what they did in 2010. Plus all vendors sent a survey putting numbers behind their work.

Finally, all analysts and myself sit together and do the rankings (using also the 90 round table materials).

It takes us a whole 45 days of full time work to finish our rankings.

STKI is sorry if any mistakes were done, we tried our best to be fair to big and small vendors .

IT Israeli Market 2011... Value Added Services

2011-03-29T08:43:00.002+02:00

IT Israeli Market 2011.. Software

2011-03-29T08:42:00.002+02:00

IT Vendors Israel 2011... Hardware

2011-03-29T08:41:00.002+02:00

Israeli IT Market

2011-03-29T08:39:00.002+02:00

STKI Summit 2011

2011-03-29T08:33:00.000+02:00

Today at STKI’s 18^th annual conference, 1,500 IT professionals heard five presentations showing the changes, intricacy and workings of the Israeli IT market. There were surprises and deep insights, which gave the attendees much to think about. STKI is the leading IT analysis company in Israel.

Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf presented his vision of the future for the next two years. Dr. Schwarzkopf showed the causes of the first technological implosion: PC Ecosystem; Client/server Ecosystem; LAN/WAN Ecosystem; Internet/Web Ecosystem; X86 Ecosystem and Relational DBMS Ecosystem, and the second technological implosion: Mobility Devices Ecosystem; Cloud Services Ecosystem; Analytic tools/appliances for data boom and Social Commerce Ecosystem.

Dr. Schwarzkopf spoke of the 5^th generation of computing, showing how cloud/mobility lead to democratization. Dr. Schwarzkopf maintains that social commerce and core applications, mobility devices and applications, data boom and analytics and hybrid cloud services all come together to form a knowledgeable economy. He called on CIOs to recognize and accept the game changers:

· Support business model innovation

· Consumerized IT and knowledge individuals

· Death of technology and multi-channel strategies

· Birth of business process and multi-touch point strategies

· Curated Computing

· Storage and bandwidth

· New OS for the Internet

· Hybrid, private and public clouds: BPaaS; PaaS; SaaS; IaaS

· Web 2 + 3

· Gamification

· Sensors

· New data base and analytic toolsNew generation of appliances

· Mobile Apps

· E-bizz

· New generation CORE applications

· IT and Marketing

The second part of Dr. Schwarzkopf’s presentation dealt with the ranking of 350 Israeli companies according to 200 categories. For the fifty-two vendor companies showing their products at the conference, as well as for all the other vendors present, this was the highlight of the conference and what they had all been waiting for.

The Israeli IT firms serve their clients in three different categories; very few of them are active in all three groups: hardware, software and the biggest of all, the value-added services. (see pictures included).

During the presentation all Vendor CEOs wait for the results of the tiers in the Value Added Services category. This is the category where the local integration and development companies compete.

Software and hardware categories are usually comprised of international vendors that import their hardware and/or software.

Galit Fein, the STKI analyst in charge of Office of the CIO, mobile and sourcing found that the Israeli culture differs from global demand, and therefore Israeli companies should not place too much value on results of international surveys.

Shachar Maor, STKI analyst in charge of security, networking and Green IT, says Cloud Computing is here to stay. Information Security is an EASY showstopper, but CISOs will have to be agile and creative in order to keep up with the trend.

Pini Cohen, the STKI analyst in charge of infrastructure and software development, draws attention to the huge amount of storage needed by Israeli companies according to his survey.

Einat Shimoni is the STKI analyst in charge of software applications.

The new mobile world

2010-11-11T07:53:00.001+02:00

Check out this SlideShare Presentation:

The new mobile world

View more presentations from Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf.

Is the Bank of Israel fudging data ???

2010-09-17T11:06:00.002+02:00

downloaded in July 2010

downloaded in September 2010

If you compare both pictures (deviation from the trend of State of the Economy Trend) you can see that the values for months April-May have been changed......

How can the Bank of Israel Research Department do that ? Why?

Can we trust them???????????

I hope there is an explanation for it or we live i a third world country.....

What happenned in 2Q2010 ?

2010-08-05T04:55:00.003+03:00

This is the graph of the Deviation from the Trend (State of the Economy Index of Bank of Israel). Over time we have found correlation between this index and the IT spending Index of STKI.

we can see that the correlation continues:

Q2 in IT was a bad quarter not as bad as last year's but something happened.

We feel that it was a 60 day downturn that has corrected itself.

Our vendor felt it but couldn't explain it.

I feel the same.

for information on the index:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.boi.gov.il/deptdata/mehkar/papers/dp0305e.pdf

The Statics and Dynamics of the Mutual Fund Industry

2010-07-24T13:14:00.001+03:00

This talk is an overview of my son's work as a graduate fellow at the Santa Fe Institute on different aspects of the statics and dynamics of the mutual fund industry. They began with the question of how much control is concentrated in the hands of the largest mutual funds. Then they study the distribution empirically and show that it indicates less concentration than, for example, personal income. Argueing that the dominant economic factor that determines the size distribution is market efficiency and as a result the mutual fund industry can be described using a random entry, exit and growth process.

http://www.santafe.edu/research/videos/play/?id=71d587e1-fa5b-407a-860c-b3b5c111146d

My Grandson Ori

2010-07-24T13:12:00.000+03:00

Is “curation” the answer for IT complexity?

2010-07-24T13:05:00.006+03:00

Introduction to “curation”

Welcome to the new decade. This new decade will be remembered for the complex environments the previous decade left us with and how we dealt with them.

The interconnected and interdependent economic environment, the new competitive arena and the new technologies available have left most of us grasping to find a way to minimize risk in what we do and offer to our organizations and clients.

Even our private worlds have been turned upside down with new emerging cultural practices. The philosopher Prof. Zygmunt Bauman used the term “Liquid Modernity” in order to explain this new complex and rapidly changing state of affairs. As a technologist I recognize that information technology and the digitalization of knowledge have been at the center of this revolution.

In order to survive we will have to do several things in order to reduce complexity or better still, cope with it. Complexity usually can be handled by innovation, simplification, management techniques and standardization.

While flying to visit my new born grandson last month several important things happened to me besides the fact of becoming a grandfather.

Coming to a new city I looked for museums to visit and the nice passenger beside me explained all about how a museum visit is basically a “simplified” (in IT terms: vanilla) tour organized by the “curator”. This curator looks at all the artifacts the museum owns and can get from outside sources in order to organize the perfect (in his view) experience for the visitors he thinks will come and enjoy it. He defines the visitor, the experience and then organizes the show.

The second was when I read an opinion piece by Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps where she talks about how the -“iPad ushers in a new era of personal computing that we call "Curated Computing"—a mode of computing where choice is constrained to deliver less complex, more relevant experiences. Let me repeat that, because it's the essence of the Curated Computing experience: less choice; more relevance”- . Given that I had just learned about curators this really hit home.

The third was that I had to prepare a presentation about IT innovation to be presented when I returned. While trying to connect cloud, SaaS, PaaS, multichannel marketing, mobile technologies, new hardware industry in a box products, new ERP/vertical software packages and other new innovations I realized what is happening and I will use the following term for it. Curated Computing.

What I am trying to say is that all the above terms represent very complex technologies that the vendors have simplified in order to make our and our company’s life easier. Every vendor has simplified in a different way, each one has a different way to do it and we (the users) have to choose the one that comes closer to the experience we want.

In other words we choose the CURATOR that fits our way of managing complexity.

How can “curation” fit into IT history

If we look at the above graph we can see “curated “ computing as the fifth generation of computing.

The first generation was very autocratic and we could say dictatorial. The data center was the king, programmers served the center and optimized their applications so that the “king computer” could process their command optimally. This was done without concern for the users, as they were secondary.

Then the PCs came, woow what a difference. Users could finally do their own thing without asking the Data Center for permission. They could even have the same software in both the office and at home. CIOs fought unsuccessfully against the use of PCs in the firm. At the end it democratized the end user experience.

The third generation opened up the world of information to everybody. We didn’t need the company’s librarian or information specialist who used to get us the needed information. We were free. Again CIOs fought unsuccessfully against free use of internet in most places. They said we all were porno junkies and that a securitywould be breached. Most companies found a way to democratize information to most employees. At home we were all free.

Next came SOA. The real term means “service oriented architectures” although some CIOs will call it “same old applications”. What did SOA bring? It allowed applications in the company and of outside partners to share data. This revolution came at the same time that users understood that IT basically had to provide automation for business processes and analytics. With SOA data collected in one part of the company was available to others without much IT investment. SOA democratized data bringing finally the dream of one version of the truth throughout the company.

Now we are entering the “curated” computing era. I am sure that many CIOs will fight this but they will lose again. We will choose vendors by looking at how they curated a certain IT problem our IT users want solved. Because this process allows vendors to sell their solution as is to many clients , the price is reduced; some of them will charge “on demand” and so smaller companies or departments with few users of a certain application will be able to afford the product. In other words, application democratization.

Curated computing everywhere

CURATED computing is here and we will all use it at home, in the office and wherever we are.

Cloud Computing, SaaS, PaaS and other forms will allow us to use “curated” IT products on demand. This means by user/month. Mostly we won’t be able or want to make changes and will use it as the vendor/curator designed it.

ERP/vertical software packages: most companies will look and decide according to the vendor/curator road map and strategy. Minimum amount of changes will be done in order to be able to move easily into the future that the vendor/curator mapped for us.

Hardware/industry in a box appliances: several vendors like NCR (Teradata), Oracle (Exadata), Cisco (Vblock), HP (Matrix) and IBM (CloudBurst) among others offer an appliance that the vendor/curator optimized for certain uses. Goodbye to buying multipurpose hardware and then integrating it at great cost for database servers, application servers or other uses.

In the mobile world we are all asked to make sort of a decision that has many consequenses. We have to decide the curator of our phone/tablet world. We are deciding between Apple and Google or maybe between Apple and Microsoft or even between Blackberry and Nokia. Our decision will influence our banks, insurance companies, medical and other service providers. They all have to provide us service no matter who our vendor/curator is. They will have to support us on our terms, exactly as our vendor/curator dictated. No extra complexity for us, the user, although for IT complexity might increase.

Welcome to the new simplified and curated world.

2010-07-22T10:10:00.001+03:00

Computing Return on IT (ROIT): The Holy Grail of the Business Value of IT

2010-04-16T08:23:00.001+03:00

The development of a return on IT measure ensures that business and IT management can understand current technology investment in terms of business outcomes.By Howard A. Rubin, founder, Rubin Worldwide

Technology organizations on the Street are both committed to and passionate about leveraging technology for competitive advantage. In fact, in the financial services industry today, technology often is the product.

In essence, the firm that can leverage technology to the fullest in conjunction with innovation and superior product development and execution will have superior technological competitive advantage. Further, the firm that can sustain this position and leverage the technology-business performance linkage will likely be in a position for ongoing dominance. Doing so, however, requires that the enterprise itself become "IT savvy" -- that is, understand technology-business leverage principles in both the business and technology communities.

Firms seeking such technology-based competitive advantage need to focus on their "Return on IT," or ROIT. ROIT is measured in the context of IT's contribution to short- and long-term goals, such as growing/protecting revenue, reducing/avoiding cost, managing risk, product leadership, fostering (and understanding) customer relationships, and enabling operational excellence.

The development and successful use of the ROIT measure will ensure that business and IT management are able to understand current IT investments in business outcome terms, detect and assess the optimality of its IT investment level (is there a need to further invest in single areas to attain IT investment critical mass?), and benchmark its IT investment strategy and ROIT against the competition.

Computing ROIT

The quantification of ROIT requires seven distinct steps:

Step 1: Understand the business strategy. What are the plans for growing and protecting revenue/profitability?

Step 2: Assess the IT "pressure points" that enable this strategy and perform an overlay on the key strategic areas (e.g., revenue growth, closing competitive gaps, entering new markets, etc.).

Step 3: Determine the competitive technology levers for each pressure point, such as operational efficiency, information effectiveness (e.g., customer information/intimacy) and strategic differentiation.

Step 4: Assess the relative contribution of each IT lever to the strategic goals in business terms, such as growing revenue, reducing cost, managing risk, etc. Make this determination by assessing the differential contribution of IT over base organic growth.

Step 5: Compute ROIT by calculating contribution versus IT investment. Overlay the risk profile -- both IT and business -- with regard to outcomes.

Step 6: Determine the optimum IT investment mix by performing scenario analysis.

Step 7: Implement and track the investment strategy. Integrate it with new strategies and refine (essentially, go to Step 1). Test competitiveness via benchmarking.

ROIT in Practice

As an example of computing ROIT, let's consider the case of a traditional wealth management business. The business has developed a new vision for a future model that features a number of substantial enhancements over the current state: the customer will be bound more to the firm than the individual financial adviser, the financial advisers hired in the future will be lower cost, advisers and clients will have a broader suite of products available, and operational efficiency will be far higher than the current state.

The business is betting that technology will be a key enabler of this transformation by providing more capability to the customer and lessening the importance of the financial adviser. (For simplicity, assume that technology investment enables 100 percent of the revenue differential.) The ROIT is the change in business performance enabled by the additional technology investment divided by the differential technology investment (the difference between the current technology investment plan and the technology investment required over the planned transformation period).

The overly simplified sample computation, above, illustrates that for this particular example, the ROIT for the new business vision is 172 percent. Although this is not a guarantee of a return on investment, the figure can be used as a basis for ranking investment options: How does the potential return from other technology investments compare with that of this investment? Of course, risk and other considerations also must be factored in to yield a complete picture.

But making ROIT work is more than just performing a single computation. It requires developing, implementing and sustaining a fully transparent technology economics investment model that:

At a product level identifies and quantifies the contribution and leverage that IT provides in support of product profitability. To what extent does IT differentially provide business process operational efficiency, informational value or strategic advantage in support of product profitability, market share, growth and risk management?
At a cross-product level identifies and quantifies the contribution and leverage that IT provides in support of overall operating efficiency, customer-centricity and risk management.
At an IT infrastructure level illuminates the linkage between business products/processes and the use/consumption of IT infrastructure resources.
Enables surgically precise IT investment placement through ROIT to maximize company performance beyond that of competitors.

Perhaps the most critical of the success factors required to meet these objectives is to ensure that the principles and underlying models of the firm's technology economy are fully communicated and understood in the IT and business communities. With this culture in place, the enterprise will be able to continuously and collaboratively leverage this knowledge -- and evolve it -- in its decision making, planning and processes as a unique and powerful business performance lever.

The point is not that this is the ultimate return on IT investment model -- rather, the point is that organizations must begin to quantify more than the expense side of their technology investments. They must begin to quantify the impact of their investments in terms of potential outcomes and use such information to make more effective investment choices.

Considering the differential impact of a new technology investment in the context of the current business trajectory -- and how such an investment may change it -- requires making assumptions and projections as to how IT really causes business outcomes. Some will say that too much conjecture is involved and not attempt this approach. Others may be bold enough to try it.

We are at any early stage in technology economics. There is not a lot known about cause and effect. But testing the waters with new ways of measuring ROIT is a way to create knowledge and is truly a base for learning faster than your competitors. And that alone -- if Peter Senge (author of "The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization") is right -- takes us on the road to the holy grail of IT investment.

7 Pillars of Making ROIT a Useful Tool

1. Adoption of an enhanced "run the business/build the business" model providing advanced transparency with a focus on the value levers of technology in terms of business contribution -- protect revenue, grow revenue, avoid cost, reduce cost, market innovation/leadership, compliance/risk management, etc.

2. Creation of a strategic technology-business scorecard based on key performance indicators (KPIs) that provide a window into technology performance by linking to business performance objectives with underlying status and progress indicators.

3. Development of a complete model/schematic detailing product business performance (profitability, growth, risk, etc.) tied in two dimensions to business processes and IT value.

4. Formulation of an ROIT current-state map showing at a product level current "coverage" of IT investment in supporting product-level operational efficiency, product leadership/differentiation and customer intimacy.

5. Construction of a product-level consumption and resource model linking products to applications to IT resource consumption and highlighting key capacity planning drivers.

6. Implementation of an overall IT investment portfolio management process that allows modeling of IT investment strategy and assessment of alternative strategies in pure business terms.

7. Establishment of a full communications program to broadcast and share the concepts across the enterprise.

Howard A. Rubin is the founder of Rubin Worldwide, a research and advisory firm focused on the economics of business technology. He can reached at howardarubin@gmail.com

And before coming to Israel I lived in Ecuador .....

2010-04-12T05:29:00.002+03:00

A relatively small number of Jews, 3,500–4,000, found refuge in Ecuador through 1942. Settlement projects from the mid-1930s, including the plan for long-term settlement of 50,000 families in mostly remote areas, were supported neither by the Ecuadorian public nor by the Jewish settlers and proved to be untrustworthy and impractical. For most of the Jews who found refuge in the country until 1942, Ecuador, with its three million inhabitants, was a second-choice place of exile, since they had failed to find asylum in another, preferred country. The majority came from Germany and Austria after the pogrom of November 1938 (*Kristallnacht) having lost hope that they could stay in their native country. Part of them settled in Guayaquil, the biggest city of the country, which was a real trading center with a population of about 180,000.

Major Jewish communities in Ecuador.

Located near the Pacific coast, it had a tropical climate. The vast majority, however, preferred the capital, Quito, situated in the Andes at an altitude of 9,200 ft. (2,800 m.). Few settled in small towns like Ambato (100), Banos, Cuenca (30), and Riobamba, or in the jungle around Puyo.

In Quito as in Guayaquil they were concentrated in several streets in the city center or not far from it. Quito with 150,000 inhabitants had no industry and only one multi-story building. Compared to middle-class European standards the living conditions were cramped and primitive, with no infrastructure and with infectious diseases and a lack of hygiene threatening their health. Many of the immigrants had only meager financial means, though many of them had brought their household goods and other possessions. Since the authorities returned the deposits that the immigrants had made to receive their visas (a few hundred dollars each), most of them had money to invest. Many had to earn their livings in unfamiliar occupations. But wherever it was possible they tried to continue in their former professions or similar ones.

Despite the regulations restricting immigration to industrial or agricultural laborers, only a minority worked in agriculture. Because of the difficult living and working conditions and their lack of knowledge such onerous attempts were given up. The project of HICEM and the Joint in 1937 to settle 60 families in the area of Ambato for chicken farming was among those failed attempts. A considerable number of the immigrants were active in trade, as peddlers, in retail and wholesale, and in the import and export trade. While the majority of the enterprises in the first years required hard work by all family members to reach a subsistence level, some of the enterprises reached a considerable size by 1942 and exist until today. The most successful were those that found a niche in the market, offering services and goods unknown in the country or absent from the market because of the war. In the field of food and textile production, in the metallurgical (El Arco, Ideal, Siderúrgica SA.) and pharmaceutical industries, in services and the hotel trade, they played an important role and brought a dynamic element into business life. Names like Rothschild, Seligmann, Neustätter, Di Capua, and Ottolenghi stand out.

The fact that the authorities as a rule did not enforce industrial or agricultural employment made it easier for the immigrants to integrate into the economic process but soon led to anti-Jewish pressure on the part of the local population. While the presidents José Maria Velasco Ibarra (1934–35, 1944–47) and Carlos Arroyo del Rio (1940–44) approved the immigration of Jews, some circles espoused an antisemitic line with recourse to the German-based press and deep-seated Christian prejudices. Also textile merchants of Arab origin, especially from Lebanon, who had lived in Ecuador for decades, considered the Jews undesirable competitors. In August 1944 Velasco Ibarra rescinded the regulations that restricted immigration to industrial or agricultural employment, but already at the end of the 1940s the authorities stepped up the control of Jewish enterprises and in 1952 another law was passed requiring proof that a foreigner was engaged in the occupation stipulated in his entry visa. This legislation was counteracted by the intervention of the World Jewish Congress. Within these limited political and social limitations the immigrants were free to do whatever they wished. There was no bar to practicing their religion or founding associations.

The biggest group among the refugees was in Quito. Its nucleus was the above-mentioned HICEM Committee founded in 1938. In the same year the Asociación de Beneficencia Israelita was founded, reaching its peak with over 540 members (heads of families) in 1945. Unlike most Latin American countries, where Jewish communities already existed and the newcomers founded their own separate organizations according to their countries of origin, the "Beneficencia" united Jews from Germany, Austria, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, the Soviet Union, and the Baltic states.

Though there was some religiously motivated separation this was of minor significance. While in Guayaquil differences of opinion about Zionism were a greater potential cause of discord than in Quito, in religious matters the situation was quite the opposite. In Guayaquil the strongest organization, Comunidad de Culto, with more than 140 members, combined the Sociedad de Beneficencia, founded in 1939–40, and the Centro Israelita, which had split off in 1944, both competing for cultural primacy. Under the impression of the foundation of the State of Israel all organizations in Quito united under the umbrella of the "Beneficencia" while in Guayaquil it took almost 20 years more to reach such unity.

The "Beneficencia" did a great deal to create a center of religious, social, and cultural life for its members. A bulletin called Informaciones para los Inmigrantes Israelitas, in the first period mainly written in German, informed readers about the community, the host country, and international affairs. Based on the model of their European countries a court of arbitration, a ḥevra kaddisha, a women's association, a cooperative bank, Maccabi, and B'nai B'rith were established. In Quito and in Guayaquil Zionist organizations were founded that succeeded in winning the support of public figures in the host country for the objectives of Zionism. The Ecuadorian representative cast his vote in the UN General Assembly resolution of November 29, 1947, in favor of the partition of Palestine. Ecuador and Israel established diplomatic relations. From the late 1960s a network of technical cooperation and assistance was developed between the two countries, especially in the fields of agriculture, water development, youth training, and technology.

Jews achieved prominence in Ecuadorian society beyond the economic field. They contributed to cultural development in music, painting, theater, arts and crafts, architecture, literature, science, journalism, and publishing.

As the majority of the immigrants had regarded their stay in Ecuador as a temporary episode, emigration after the end of the war was considerable. By 1948 about half the Jews in Quito had emigrated, mainly to the U.S. On the other hand, a considerable number of survivors of the Holocaust arrived in the early postwar years. Because of continuous emigration, mortality, and partial assimilation of the following generation, which considered Spanish its mother tongue, the immigrant organizations lost their pivotal role as preservers of social and cultural identity. However, the Jews continued to form a small middle-class group largely cut off from the strong Catholic upper class and the masses of mestizos and the indigenous population.

The Pesach-Schwarz family (from Bukovina) (my other half)

2010-04-12T05:13:00.004+03:00

In regard to the total Jewish population of Austria, in 1857, 72.3% lived in Galicia, 14% in Bohemia, 6.7% in Moravia, 4.7% in Bukovina and in the remaining crown lands, 1 to 1.1%. In 1869, 70% lived in Galicia, 11% in Bohemia, .2% in Maehren, 5.8% in Bukovina and in Lower Austria (really, Vienna) 6.4%⁷ .

While Galicia, Bohemia and Moravia showed a decrease in the total percentage of the Jewish population living there, there was an increase in Bukovina and Vienna.

This increase in Jewish population in Bukovina can be attributed to immigration of Jews from Galicia, Russia, and Romania⁸ .

In contrast to the first half of the XIX century when Jews were not allowed to live everywhere, in the second half of the century, the Jewish topography was altered.

This increase in population after 1849 lead to their settling on the plains.

They became scattered over the entire land. In 1880, there were only 11 villages that had no Jewish inhabitants⁹ .

In most cities and villages, the Jews constituted 10% of the total population.

Jewish Businesses and Professions

Since 1848, business life of the Bukovina Jews improved so vastly that the contemporary Jewish press in 1851 was able to state that in a material sense, the Jews of Bukovina were much better off than those of Galicia^10a . Also, the social conditions got better with every day that passed.

Over 50% of the Jews were involved in wholesale. The number in agriculture was also appreciable. The Jews also helped to increase trade with Russia, Walachia, Moldavia and Turkey.

Until the constitution of 1867, there were no impediments to the growth and prosperity of Jewish businesses.

The reduction of property rights introduced on October 2, 1853 reintroduced the restrictions that the Jews were subjected to in both their business life and private lives before 1848.

The ordinance of February 18, 1860¹¹ effecting the Jews of Galicia, Bukovina and Krakow, forbid the owning of real estate unless you had achieved a certain level of education. This made it difficult for the Jews of Bukovina to own property since they had not achieved this level of education.

The central government was flooded with requests from Galicia and Bukovina for relief from this ordinance. Exceptions could only be granted by the justice minister, Joseph Lasser Freiherr von Zollheim^11a .

The law of February 28, 1864^11b gave the Jews of the capital city Chernivtsi, some relief insofar as it removed the education requirements for property ownership.

The constitution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire of December 21, 1867 concerning the general rights of citizens finally removed all restrictions from the Jews.

Article 6 of the law stated: Any citizen of the state can take up residence in any part of the state and acquire real estate of any kind as well as take up any profession allowed under the law.

Until 1867, bar keeping and commerce was their main occupation.

After 1848, the amount of Jewish brandy distillers, whose number was restricted previously by law, increased so drastically that in 1884, out of 1894 wine, beer and brandy producers in Bukovina, approximately 98% were in Jewish hands.

Thanks to the equality introduced by the constitution of 1867, the Jews were given free rein to pursue their business interests.

The removal of the restrictions on owning property (art. 6) provided the initiative for the Jews to acquire land and led to the creation of a sizable class of Jewish land owners.

They immediately made use of the law.

The first large estate that came into Jewish hands as a result of the ordinance of February 18, 1860 was acquired 1862.

After 1867, the number of Jewish large landowners grew.

In 1875, in the voting class of large estate owners out of 112 voters, 14¹⁴ were Jewish and in 1888 out of 141 voters 31 were Jews (22%¹⁵ ) who owned 37 estates.

Before the beginning of World War I (1910) 42% of the large estates were in Jewish hands and 85% of the Bukovina estates were either owned by Jews or worked by them as tenant farmers.

The majority of the brilliantly and intensively run model farms were run by Jewish economists and Agronomists and Jewish personnel schooled in agriculture, mostly graduates of the Agricultural School in Chernivtsi

Most estates went from father to son so a solid Jewish estate owner and tenant farmer class was maintained which ran its farms using rational and modern methods of agriculture.

There were also Jewish small farm tenants and owners of small farms, who efficiently worked the land with their families and would grow fruit and raise fish, bees and were brilliantly successful with raising cattle.

On many Jewish estates, there were industrial undertakings that were closely related to agriculture. Such as brandy distilleries which existed in 1908 on 61 Jewish farms. In addition, there were breweries, yeast factories like the large Frankel yeast factory in Mihowa, mills, brick works, turnip sugar factories and saw mills.

Also on Christian estates, there were Jewish industrial enterprises. They were chiefly distilleries, breweries, and sawmills that the Jews either rented from the estate owner or built on their own initiative.

Since 1867, the Jews took an active part in the industrialization of the land. Jewish initiative and work as well as Jewish capital from inside and outside Bukovina developed the industry. They founded the first factories and were active in breweries and mills with the steam mill set up by Jews from Breslau a leader in the field. In addition, the sugar and leather tanning industry was entirely in Jewish hands and they were also active in the wood and construction material business.

In the course of the XIX century, new professions such as engineering, law and medicine were opened to Jews who had graduated from college.

Already at the middle of the XIX century, young Bukovina Jews studied at the university and joined the academic ranks.

As early as the end of the XVIII century, Jews in Austria were allowed to practice law and were given the authority to represent Jews and Christians.

In Bukovina, Jews started to practice law in the 1850s.

With justice minister Graf Nadasy's reorganization of September 29, 1855, 18 Jewish lawyers from Galicia and 2 from Bukovina given seats on the Regional Court in Chernivtsi, among them, Doctor Josef Wohlfeld and Doctor Josef Fechner¹⁹ .

There were also Jewish doctors and surgeons. With the growth of the number of Jewish students at the university, the number of Jews in the free academic professions grew apace.

In 1889, out of the 69 doctors in Bukovina, 37 were Jewish and of the 59 lawyers, 45 were Jewish.

In 1905 a series of pogroms erupted at the same time as the 1905 Revolution against the government of Tsar Nicholas II. The chief organizers of the pogroms were the members of the Union of the Russian People (commonly known as the "Black Hundreds").^[12]

In June 1906 a pogrom in Bialystok, in which eighty people were killed, marked the end of three years of sporadic anti-Jewish violence.^[13]

From 1911-1913 the anti-Semitic tenor of the period was characterized by a number of blood libel cases (accusations of Jews murdering Christians for ritual purposes). One of the most famous was the two-year trial of Mendel Beilis, who was charged with the murder of a Christian boy (Lowe 1993, 284-90). The trial was showcased by the authorities to illustrate the perfidy of the Jewish population.^[14]

From March-May 1915, in the face of the German army, the government expelled thousands of Jews from the Empire's border areas, which coincide with the Pale of Settlement ^[15]^[16]

The February 1917 revolution brought a liberal Provisional Government to power in the Russian Empira. On 21 March/3 April, the government removed all "discrimination based upon ethnic religious or social grounds".^[17] The Pale was officially abolished. The removal of the restrictions on Jews' geographical mobility and educational opportunities led to a migration to the country's major cities.^[18]

One week after the 25 October/7 November 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the new government proclaimed the "Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples [Nations] of Russia," promising all nationalities the rights of equality, self-determination and secession. Jews were not specifically mentioned in the declaration, reflecting Lenin's view that Jews did not constitute a nation.^[19]

Separation of Church from State and School from Church", depriving religious communities of the status of juridical persons, the right to own property and the right to enter into contracts. The decree nationalized the property of religious communities and banned their assessment of religious tuition. As a result, religion could be taught or studied only in private.^[20]

1 February 1918

The Commissariat for Jewish National Affairs is established as a subsection of the Commissariat for Nationality Affairs. It is mandated to establish the "dictatorship of the proletariat in the Jewish streets" and attract the Jewish masses to the regime while advising local and central institutions on Jewish issues. The Commissariat is also expected to fight the influence of Zionist and Jewish-Socialist Parties.^[21]

27 July 1918

The Council of People's Commissars issues a decree stating that anti-Semitism is "fatal to the cause of the ... revolution". Pogroms are officially outlawed.^[22]

20 October 1918

The Jewish section of the CPSU (Yevsektsia) is established for the Party's Jewish members; its goals are similar to those of the Jewish Commissariat. The Yevsektsia is at the forefront of the anti-religious campaigns of the 1920s that lead to the closing of religious institutions, the break-up of religious communities and the further restriction of access to religious education.^[23] To that end a series of "community trials" against the Jewish religion are held. The last known such trial, on the subject of circumcision, was held in 1928 in Kharkiv.^[24] At the same time, the body also works to establish a secular identity for the Jewish community.^[25]

In July 1919 the Central Jewish Commissariat dissolves the kehillot (Jewish Communal Councils). The kehillot had provided a number of social services to the Jewish community.^[26]

From 1919-1920 Jewish parties and Zionist organizations are driven underground as the Communist government seeks to abolish all potential opposition.^[27]

31 January 1924

The Constitution of the USSR is confirmed. The USSR consists of the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR), Ukrainian SSR, Belorussian SSR and Transcaucasian SSR.^[28] The Commissariat for Nationalities' Affairs is disbanded.^[29]

29 August 1924

An official agency for Jewish resettlement, the Commission for the Settlement of Jewish Toilers on the Land (KOMZET), is established. KOMZET studies, manages and funds projects for Jewish resettlement in rural areas.^[30]

January 1925

A public organization, the Society for the Agricultural Organization of Working Class Jews in the USSR (OZET), is created to help recruit colonists and support the colonization work of KOMZET.^[31] For the first few years, the government encourages Jewish settlements, particularly in Ukraine. Support for the project dwindles throughout the next decade.^[32]

In 1928, in an effort to establish a Jewish territorial region, KOMZET sends a number of Jews to the confluence of the Bira and Bidzhan Rivers in the Far East. Colonization of this area will help to create a buffer between the Soviet Union and the Far Eastern countries, and to stimulate development in the remote region.^[33]

8 April 1929

The new Law on Religious Associations codifies all previous religious legislation. All meetings of religious associations are to have their agenda approved in advance; lists of members of religious associations must be provided to the authorities.^[34]

In 1930 the Yevsektsia is dissolved,^[25] and there is now no central Soviet-Jewish organization. Although the body had served to undermine Jewish religious life, its dissolution leads to the disintegration of Jewish secular life as well; Jewish cultural and educational organizations gradually disappear.^[35]

When the Soviet government reintroduced the use of internal passports in 1933, "Jewish" is considered an ethnicity for these purposes.^[36]

7 May 1934

Birobidzhan Province, the Far Eastern area where Jews are being encouraged to settle, is granted the status of an Autonomous Region in an effort to revitalize the settlement program. Between 1928 and 1934, fewer than 20,000 Jews migrate there; approximately 60 percent return in the same period.^[37]

In 1938 OZET is disbanded, following years of declining activities.^[38]

The cities with the largest populations of Jews in 1926 were Odessa, 154,000 or 36.5% of the total population; Kiev, 140,500 or 27.3%; Kharkiv, 81,500 or 19.5%; and Dnipropetrovsk, 62,000 or 26.7%. In 1931 Lviv's Jewish population numbered 98,000 or 31.9%, and in Chernivtsi, 42,600 or 37.9%.^[39]

As the Soviet government annexes territory in Poland, Romania and the Baltic states,^[40] roughly two million Jews become Soviet citizens.^[41] Restrictions on Jews that had existed in the formerly independent countries are now lifted.^[42] [The Baltic states had begun their brief period of independence as democracies.^[43] Policies of "Latvianization" and "Lithuanization" also caused friction with all minorities, although the Lithuanian government at the same time supported minority-language schooling.^[44]] At the same time, Jewish organizations in the newly-acquired territories are shut down and their leaders arrested and exiled.^[45] Approximately 250,000 Jews escape or are evacuated from the annexed territories to the Soviet interior prior to the Nazi invasion.^[46]

Iglau Jews (like the Schwarzkopfs)

2010-04-12T04:55:00.000+03:00

MAHLER AND ANTI-SEMITISM IN EUROPE

Mahler & Anti-Semitism in Europe

by Bill Breakstone

The role that anti-Semitism played during the lifetime of Gustav Mahler, and many other artists of Jewish descent, was very important in both a personal sense, and in an artistic one as well. Many may think that the rise of hatred against European Jews stemmed from the 1920s and the rise of Hitler’s National Socialist Party, but it in fact goes much, much further back in history.

What is both interesting, and tragic, is that European Jews were on the verge of real emancipation from religious bigotry. Mahler and his family provide a fascinating case in point.

Mahler was born in 1860 in the small Moravian town of Iglau,like the Schwarzkopfs, close to the border with Bohemia. It was one of just a few towns in that region where German-speaking inhabitants predominated. His father, Bernhard, was a Jew born in Germany, and was a quite successful businessman who had accumulated a high degree of education and monetary wealth.

Without becoming too historically detailed, during the 18th Century a division occurred among Jews in Europe. The emerging Haskalah sect, whose members were referred to as “Maskilim”, was composed of doctors, lawyers, philosophers and business people of all types, who “exhibited an ideal synthesis of loyalty to Judaism and involvement in general culture and society”1, and its purpose can be defined as ‘to bring light to the dark night in which the people of Israel are immersed’.2 These were the beliefs that Bernhard Mahler adopted in his early years. The Maskalim bitterly opposed Hasidism and its rampant superstition as the main obstacle in the way of improving the political, moral, and cultural situation of the Jews.

When the young Gustav Mahler left Iglau in 1875, nothing dramatic had yet occurred to dash the Jews’ hopes of emancipation, and he no doubt looked forward to attaining his full civil rights in the capital. Nor was he to be disappointed, for in Vienna he found himself in a tolerant society in which the Jews had been successfully integrated, even though the most precious benefits of assimilation were of course reserved for the rich bourgeoisie and foremost intellectuals.

This religious tolerance was about to change beginning in the late 1870s and then far more dramatically from 1880 onwards, especially after the 1895 General Election, which brought the Christian Socialists to power with an anti-Semitic programme that destroyed all hopes of assimilation of the Jews. As De La Grange states, “In any case, although Christian politics, Christian anti-Semitism and Christian social demagogy had effectively taken over Viennese politics, it was still Jewish brains, Jewish passion for learning, and Jewish artistic gifts which held sway in all branches of the City’s intellectual life, with science, medicine, philosophy, sociology, and the law all largely in Jewish hands. Jewish talent reigned over Viennese culture, especially in literature, while the philanthropy of Jewish magnates sustained the visual arts and saved them from sinking into traditional Viennese conservatism. The majority of the press was also in Jewish hands, and had remained faithful to its former liberal ideals. But an important change had taken place: Vienna had become the major centre of European anti-Semitism.”3

After his time in Hamburg and Prague, Mahler was approached by the Vienna Court Opera [Hofoper] to take over its reins. Mahler was quoted as saying “The fact was that it was impossible to occupy an official post without being baptized.” Thus, what I call a conversion of necessity was accomplished in 1896, shortly before he accepted the position in Vienna, one of the world’s highest achievements in musical arts.

Here it is worth quoting De La Grange in detail. “In any case, what is demonstrable is that he [Mahler] never was, and never became, a church- or synagogue-goer. Although there were a great number of Jewish organizations, societies, and fraternities—both religious and secular—Mahler never belonged to any of them. Throughout his adult life he never observed any of the Jewish High Holidays, but instead confined himself to the traditional—i.e., Christian—feasts, with Christmas as the main one. His religious beliefs were expressed in other ways. First there was his devotion to music and his positive sense of morality and justice. Then there was his unceasing life struggle to achieve the highest ethical standards, whether in a search for inner truths and eternal values or in his uncompromising sense of duty and solidarity with the rest of humanity. But, above all perhaps, at the core of his belief lay the commitment to be as true to himself as possible (often dangerously so), whether in his life or in his music. Mahler’s imaginary folk music, his expressionistic excesses (the asperities and cruel irony of his late scherzos for instance), can be interpreted as a form of the Jewish ‘ethical pursuit of truth, because in his music he strove to include everything human and thus sought to fulfill his ultimate desire—artistic integrity.”

1 Steven Belle, Vienna and the Jews 1867-1938(Cambridge University, Cambridge,
1989).
2 Samuel Finer, Haskalkah and History, The Emergence of Modern Jewish Historical
Consciousness (Littman, Oxford, 2002).
3 Henry-Louis de La Grange, Gustav Mahler—A New Life Cut Short (1907-1911), (Oxford University Press, London, 2008

TheMarker - "ארגונים בישראל עדיין לא הבינו את מהפכת האייפון" - היי-טק

2010-04-06T09:38:00.000+03:00

TheMarker - "ארגונים בישראל עדיין לא הבינו את מהפכת האייפון" - היי-טק

A typology of Crowds

2010-03-28T08:51:00.000+03:00

A typology of crowds

by Nick Carr

Over the last few days, I've been involved in an email discussion on "The Crowd," which will be excerpted on PBS's Digital Nation site. One thing that has long bothered me about discussions of online crowds is that they tend to yoke lots of different sorts of groups together under a single rubric. Important differences end up being glossed over.

With that in mind, I've been trying to think through the various forms that online crowds take. As a rough starting point, I came up with four:

"Social production crowd": consists of a large group of individuals who lend their distinct talents to the creation of some product like Wikipedia or Linux.

"Averaging crowd": acts essentially as a survey group, providing an average judgment about some complex matter that, in some cases, is more accurate than the judgment of any one individual (the crowd behind prediction markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets, not to mention the stock market and other financial exchanges).

"Data mine crowd": a large group that, through its actions but usually without the explicit knowledge of its members, produces a set of behavioral data that can be collected and analyzed in order to gain insight into behavioral or market patterns (the crowd that, for instance, feeds Google's search algorithm and Amazon's recommendation system).

"Networking crowd": a group that trades information through a shared communication system such as the phone network or Facebook or Twitter.

Clay Shirky, who is also participating in the discussion, suggested a fifth crowd type for this list:

"Transactional crowd": a group used to instigate and coordinate what are mainly or solely point-to-point transactions, such as the type of crowd gathered by Match.com, eBay, Innocentive, LinkedIn and similar services. (I would think that contests like the Netflix Prize also fall into this category.)

Each of these "crowds" (and there are surely others) has its own unique characteristics and its own unique strengths and weaknesses. Some crowds, for instance, gain their usefulness from the individual talents of their members. Others (notably the "averaging" sort) gain their usefulness by essentially filtering out those individual talents. Some crowds might be called "hives," which implies some degree of individual unconsciousness about how one's work or behavior fits into the larger whole, while others aren't anything like mindless hives. Some crowds become more useful as they get bigger; others work best when kept to a small scale. "Crowdsourcing" and its cousin "digital sharecropping" may draw on any or all of the different types of crowds, to various effects and with various ethical implications.

As this nascent typology indicates, there's not really any such thing as "The Crowd."

UPDATE: Tom Lord, in a comment, suggests a sixth category:

"Event crowd": A group organized through online communication for a particular event, which can take place either online or in the real world and may have a political, social, aesthetic, or other purpose.

Young people and their generational differences (1980-2004)

2010-03-28T08:27:00.001+03:00

Young people and their generational differences (1980-2004)

Generation Y: people who were born between 1980 and 1994.

Generation Y is the kind who voice their opinion loud and clear. Be it the right to vote, the right to scream, the right to consume alcohol and so on. If you have a child who belongs to this generation, then you should not complain much when they turn up at home with their belly pierced. It is the most opinionated generation of all. If something is wrong, they will ask and if something is going wrong they will try to stop it. However, when it comes to right or wrong, it is their opinion and not anyone else’s that will be taken into consideration.

When it comes to generation Y and drugs or alcohol, this generation is not above trying and experiencing anything new. They are willing to experiment with drugs and alcohol and do not think that there is anything wrong with it because it is their life and they can do whatever they want with in. Therefore, generation Y has no qualms about doing drugs and alcohol and are proud about it as they will brag and talk about it with their friends.

However, it is important to understand that the generation Y expects more out of life and not less. So when it comes to compromise they are not good at it. However, at the same time if they want a better life, they will work for it.

During their time the economy, technology, health care breakthroughs, and even worldwide economic conditions were growing rapidly. Every single family was doing well and there was a boom in every kind of business. Children that were brought up during these times were financially secure and also lived with comforts. By this time there was cable television, answering machines, many models of cars that were affordable, international holidays and even private schools. These kids who were born during the economy boom do not know how to adjust with less.

They have seen their parents work hard and hence know the value of hard work. They are prepared to do anything like accepting new challenges, facing changes at work and personal front easily. However, what they cannot do is adjust to poverty and circumstances where their basic are denied to them.

However, future generations are less likely to experience major differences in technology and our social life as they did.

Generation Z: people who were born between 1994 and 2004.

Many of them are in their early teens and differ from the earlier generation in many ways. This particular generation is still in a stage of evolution and they are yet to learn several things in life.

As per research this generation can be an active set of consumers. Being born during the time of consumer market boom they have access to almost all the best things one could get. They have access to almost everything such as communication tools, internet cell phones, MP3 players, IPods, and all the current gadgets. They are the children of the modern world and are also called the digital generation. They also are growing up in a world of equality and they believe men and women are equals.

Since they are leading much more structured lives than any of their ancestors, they can be responsible adults and also with high social values. This generation has embraced technology and also they are highly dependent on it. They are more inclined to the virtual world and are less likely to take to extreme measures like terrorism. If generation Z is molded properly, they can achieve a lot more than their earlier generations using the digital media. However, on the other hand they may be poor with interpersonal skills and, in addition; they may not give too much importance to family values. They are very individualistic in their characteristics.

Beyond 2020, there could be drastic changes in work culture, ethics and even values that will be set forth by the generation Z. The generation Z is not good listeners and they severely lack interpersonal skills. They use the World Wide Web mostly for communication and keeping touch. So when it comes to work, in future they may barely be seen in an office communicating with their colleagues but might live their life in the virtual world. They do not believe in land lines or email... they have instant all.

They are less oriented than the generation Y but have strong opinions and do not take suggestions well. Psychologists are noticing a drastic behavior change from generation Y to Generation Z. For the generation Y, the emphasis has always been career and studies whereas the generation Z does not believe in career and formal studies either. Their personal lives can lack communication and this lack of communication may not be very effective for bringing up future generations by them. Also by the time the Generation Z starts working there might be severe shortage of professionals like doctors and scientists. Also, such professions may not hold any value for the generation Z.

The characteristics and qualities of the generation Z has to be completely set apart from the others and they are the newest generation in their own category. Generation Z are people who were born after the 1990 and by then technology was ruling the world. The generation Z is also called the silent generation, iGeneration, generation quiet and net generation. They have several other names based on their qualities.

Today, the generation Z makes up for nearly 18 percent of the world’s population. Here are some classic qualities that the generation Z exhibits.

For generation Z, computer technologies and the Internet is the common place. All their communication takes place on the internet and they show very little verbal communication skills. Most of their formative years are being spent on the World Wide Web. They are used to instant action and satisfaction due to internet technology.

They are very impatient as they desire instant results. The Internet is there and they take it for granted. They do not consider it to be the greatest tool for mankind as it has always been there for them. Their means of communication is mainly through online communities like Orkut, Google, and Face Book. They do not believe in personally meeting their friends and developing relationships. They are capable of making huge communities and have massive collaborations using the Internet without knowing anyone personally. They may not do very well in areas of public speaking and regard privacy to the core. They may consider living with others as intrusion of space.

(based on several articles from the internet)

From the whole family also

2010-03-25T10:43:00.000+02:00

How different are they: consumerization ≠ commoditization ≠interchangeable ≠ standardization

2010-03-25T09:26:00.002+02:00

There is a lot of confusion in the IT market about the use of this words

Looking back at history (IT history and me as an elder in it):

During the 1970's new technologies definitely started with the military.

During the 80s and 90s it was business needs that guided innovation.

Now it is the private individual who is the focus of IT innovation...

This is called consumerization of IT, new technology to the consumer market ahead of business markets.

Commoditization and Interchangeable

• market based on undifferentiated products

• Commoditization usually leads to lower prices since undifferentiated products produce perfect competition

• Some technology products are certainly becoming interchangeable but what's really commoditizing?

• Not software, not hardware, not services, ONLY broadband

• False commoditization can create substantial risk when premier products (substantial additional value to offer) are more expensive .

don’t confuse INTERCHANGABLE and COMMODITIZATION

Interchangable means that certain products can meet certain expectations not equally but enough

FINALLY: STANDARIZATION which we all need

My new published paper

2010-03-25T09:19:00.002+02:00

How entrepreneurs-in-residence increase seed investment rates

Authors: Jimmy Schwarzkopf ^a; Moren Lvesque ^b;Andrew Maxwell ^c

Affiliations:	^a Research Fellow and Partner, STKI, Moshav Bnei Zion, Israel
	^b Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
	^c Business Partnerships, Canadian Innovation Centre, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Published in: Venture Capital, Volume 12, Issue 1 January 2010 , pages 65 - 81

Abstract

This article investigates the role of entrepreneurs-in-residence (EIRs) in closing the equity gap born by a lack of venture capital investment in early stage businesses. We conducted interviews with 10 Israeli-based venture capitalists and four EIRs to identify the mechanisms and actions used by EIRs when operating in venture capital firms, and subsequently in funded ventures, that lead to a greater proportion of funds targeted to seed investments. The findings of our exploratory study suggest that EIRs facilitate investment decisions by acting as catalysts in the development of the relationship between the venture capitalist and the fund-seeking entrepreneur. EIRs can thus prevent some of the problems that preclude venture success through the nurturing of trusted relationships with both fund-seeking entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. Furthermore, ex-ante, during and ex-post investment, through building these trusted relationships, EIRs act as transaction-cost reducers, thus increasing expected return on investments from early stage ventures. In an attempt to help reduce the equity gap by developing a better understanding of this key phenomenon, these findings provide guidance to rising entrepreneurs as they develop their early stage businesses, to venture capitalists as they look for investment opportunities, and to governments eager to increase the rate of seed funding.

Happy and tasty Pesach to all my friends

2010-03-25T08:44:00.000+02:00

Pictures from the STKI Annual CEO/CIO brunch

2010-03-20T05:35:00.004+02:00

אצל ג'ימי על הדשא

http://www.thepeople.co.il/Index.asp?ArticleID=31442&CategoryID=72

http://www.thepeople.co.il/Index.asp?ArticleID=31467&CategoryID=72

http://www.thepeople.co.il/Index.asp?CategoryID=72&VolID=1136#art31563

http://picasaweb.google.com/jimmyschwarzkopf/STKISUMMIT2010TheBrunch#

Office of the CIO Trends 2010

2010-03-19T05:11:00.001+02:00

Check out this SlideShare Presentation:

Office of the CIO Trends 2010

View more presentations from gueste25c51c.

2010-03-19T05:07:00.001+02:00

TEXTAREA_ID

Stki Summit 2010 Infrastracture Services (security, networking, etc)

2010-03-19T04:50:00.001+02:00

Check out this SlideShare Presentation:

Stki Summit 2010 Infra Services V8

View more presentations from shaharmaor.

STKI Summit 2010 Infrastructure Presentation

2010-03-19T04:48:00.001+02:00

Check out this SlideShare Presentation:

STKI Summit 2010 Infra Pini

View more presentations from Pini Cohen.

WOW what a SUMMIT we had... thanks to our clients and the great STKI team

2010-03-18T15:21:00.001+02:00

Thanks to everyone that came to our STKI Summit 2010

2010-03-18T14:30:00.001+02:00

pictures of the 1350 people that came are in

http://picasaweb.google.com/adieyal17/STKI2010?authkey=Gv1sRgCOPjvojSudGpWQ&feat=email#

2010 Enterprise Applications, BI & KM Trends

2010-03-18T14:23:00.001+02:00

Check out this SlideShare Presentation:

2010 Enterprise Applications, BI & KM Trends

View more presentations from Einat Shimoni.

2010-03-17T07:16:00.001+02:00

Technology trends for 2010-2012 ISRAEL

View more presentations from Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf.

TIERS and MARKET STUDY

2010-03-17T07:15:00.004+02:00

Market Analysis (Israel)

View more presentations from Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf.

view articles in the press:

http://www.themarker.com/tmc/article.jhtml?ElementId=skira20100406_1161007

http://it.themarker.com/tmit/article/10054

http://www.pc.co.il/?p=29383

http://www.pc.co.il/?p=29459

STKI Summit Presentations can be downloaded

2010-03-17T06:43:00.002+02:00

Presentations from the summit:

analysis of the companies and markets in Israel:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/market-analysis-israel

analysis of the trends:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/technology-trends-for-20102012-israel

Value Added Services part 2 Market Israeli IT 2008-2012

2010-03-14T08:19:00.004+02:00

Value Added Services part 1 Market Israeli IT 2008-2012

2010-03-14T08:19:00.001+02:00

Software Market Israeli IT 2008-2012

2010-03-14T08:13:00.001+02:00

Hardware Market Israeli IT 2008-2012

2010-03-14T08:12:00.001+02:00

industries"s IT spending as % of total

2010-03-14T08:10:00.000+02:00

Size of the sub-markets in the Israeli IT Market

2010-03-14T08:09:00.000+02:00

Israeli IT Market yearly rate of change

2010-03-14T08:08:00.000+02:00

STKI Annual IT Market figures

2010-03-14T08:06:00.000+02:00

STKI: the methodology

2010-03-14T07:55:00.002+02:00

2009 was a great year for STKI.

We did over:

80 round-tables (can be downloaded)

60 vendor briefing with International and local vendors

50 road maps with user organizations

3 different surveys (results shown at the summit)

I also met with over 250 CIO and CEO as a Summit preparation

in other words.......

I hope you can trust our numbers..... no guessing or linear regressions.

Hope to see you there.. 1,350 people have registered

2010-03-14T07:29:00.004+02:00

STKI Summit 2010

REGISTRATION

STKI analysts and staff have worked incredibly this year. It looks like we are going to have the best Summit yet.

30+ companies in the EXPO and over 1350 attendees will make it an incredible journey into Israeli IT markets and technologies.

Thanks to everyone at STKI..... you were great.

My father my teacher

2010-03-14T06:55:00.004+02:00

Dr. Bedrich (Enrique) Schwarzkopf (1923-2010)

(picture taken wearing my doctorate cap)

My father "Fritzi", as my grandmother used to call him, was born in 1923 in Iglau, Czechoslovakia to a non observant well to do Jewish family .

In 1939 my grandparents took my aunt and father to Ecuador (only place they could go to at the time). They where the only ones of the whole family not finishing in Teresienstad and the ovens of Auschwitz.

Fritz changed his name to Enrique and finished high school at the Maldonado High School in Quito (finishing as the valedictorian). At the age of 18 he "escaped"from Ecuador and joined the Czech Brigade (armored corps) of the British Army and saw action in Europe (using his Czech name Bedrich and not the unpopular Fritz).

After the war he started studying chemistry in Prague and when the Soviets took over the country he flew again to Ecuador where he continued his studies (Universidad Central). In 1950 he needed a good typist for his doctoral thesis and so found this "gorgeous"medical student (a refugee from Rumania) who was willing to type. He was surprised and got engaged to marry conditionally. When Gerda told him that no conditions accepted and it had to happen before he defends his thesis, he surrendered to her. He finished his doctorate after his wedding and again was valedictorian.

That started a great relation that lasted 60 years.

Both my parents started and managed together a "shirt"factory in Quito working from 06:30 in the morning till the evening (he worked until one week before his death). Fabrica Aso as it was called became also a central part of my childhood. A place where I was taught the ethics of hard work.

They where partners in life, in work , best friends and my loving parents.

During those years they gave my brother and me (later to all the 6 grandchildren) all what they could. I got the best education that a person can dream and all of it was them, together. They helped and never asked for anything in return.

They became the center of life for both my brother's and my families (grandchildren).

WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

My parents

2010-03-14T06:49:00.008+02:00

The Israeli IT Market q42010

2009-10-30T10:12:00.003+02:00

(Graph above from Bank of Israel.... deviation from the trend ...State of the economy index)

As we forecasted previously Q32009 and the month of October were “terrible” for the Israeli IT vendor industry. If we also see the attached graph from Bank of Israel we can see that the same trend went through all industries.

look and download at:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/stki-2010-forecasts

We expect the last quarter to “really pickup” and show itself as the best quarter of 2009, not only because of seasonal purchases but also as a window for a much better 2010. 2010 will show 2 digit growth in nearly all IT vendor markets.

As I come from Ecuador I made some research and found a very interesting article .....

2009-10-12T16:52:00.000+02:00

As I come from Ecuador I made some research and found a very interesting article .....

Most historians assert that Jews were among the Spanish settlers of Ecuador in colonial times. Certain family names among established Ecuadorian families attest to their Sephardi ancestry; however, prior to World War II there was very little Jewish immigration to Ecuador. In 1904 there were only four Jewish families in the country, and a survey in 1917 indicated the presence of 14 Jews. After 1924, when the United States established its immigration quota system, a handful more arrived in Ecuador. Yet, only in the wake of the rise of Nazism and the ensuing Holocaust in Europe did the Jewish mass immigration to Ecuador began. During the years 1933-43 about 2,700 Jews arrived, and by 1945 there were 3,000 new Jewish immigrants, 85% of whom were refugees from Europe.
In the early years of World War II, Ecuador still admitted a certain amount of immigrants, and in 1939, when several South American countries refused to accept the 165 Jewish refugees from Germany aboard the ship "Koenigstein," Ecuador granted them entry permits. Nevertheless, the country eventually gave way to a policy of selectivity. Jewish immigration to Ecuador were supposed to be employed in the agricultural realm, but the authorities soon surmised that the immigrants were actually merchants, industrialists, and businessmen, and were not farming. As a result, in 1938 legislation was passed compelling any Jew not engaged in agriculture or industry to leave the country. In addition, entry rights were limited to those Jews who possessed a minimum of $400, which they would have to invest in an industrial project.
In 1935 the Comite pour l'Etude de l'Industrie de l'Immigration dans la Republique de l'Equateur was established in Paris by the organization, the Freeland League of Jewish Colonization, with the purpose of creating a settlement program in Ecuador. An agreement was reached with the Ecuadorian government to transfer 500,000 acres of land to the Committee's jurisdiction for a period of 30 years to be settled by immigrants regardless of race, religion, or nationality. Several concessions were also promised, such as tax exemption for three years, citizenship after one year, customs exemption, and free transportation by train from the port to the interior of the country. The president signed the agreement several months later on the condition that a detailed program be presented by May 1937 and that the Committee invest $8,000 and settle at least 100 families. Some Jewish organizations, however, found the land proposed for the plan unacceptable, claiming that it was too far from population centers and that the climate was too severe. The result of these objections was the total abandonment of the project.
Following this attempt, the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee and HICEM attempted to establish chicken farms for the immigrants in other areas of Ecuador, and 60 families were settled, but conditions precluded any success in the venture, which ultimately failed. Most of the immigrants were businessmen and professionals who preferred to carry on their professions. Interestingly, many discovered that the native balsa wood was excellent for furniture craft and began production. Later, these immigrants introduced iron and steel furniture to the Ecuadorian market, previously unknown to the country. They also developed retail stores and opened hotels. The success of the immigrants, however, caused tension among the Syrian and Cuban community who had previously controlled those fields of business. This pressure led to an anti-Jewish sentiment for awhile, but nothing more substantial.
At its peak, in 1950, the Jewish population of Ecuador was estimated at 4,000 persons, the majority living in Quito, several hundred in Guayaquil, and several scores in Ambato, Riobamba, and Cuenca. In 1952, a law was passed requiring every foreigner to supply proof that he was engaged in the occupation stipulated in his entry visa. The World Jewish Congress tried to help those Jews who were practicing business, but were only supposed to be in the agricultural sector; however, attempts at agricultural settlement were unsuccessful.
Prominent Ecuadorian Jews
Ecuadorian Jews have achieved prominence in various fields including academics, industry, and science. Benno Weiser (Benjamin Varon), who was an active Ecuadorian journalism, later entered the Israel diplomatic service and served in various Latin American countries. His brother, Max Weiser, was the first Israel consul in Ecuador.
In the industrial field, where Jews played an especially important role, the names Rothschild and Seligmann stand out in the area of the development of metal industries, and the pharmaceutical industry is indebted to Carlos Alberti Ottolenghi and Alberto Di Capua. Paul Engel, an endocrinologist and pathologist, was a co-founder of the Endocrine Society of Ecuador.
Modern Ecuador
Students celebrate Channukah at the Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein
The Jewish community of Ecuador is predominantly of German origin, but the younger generation is Spanish-speaking. The Ecuadorian Jewish community is a homogeneous group, a fact which has facilitated great communal organization. The Asociacion de Beneficencia Israelita, founded in 1938, is the central body for religious and cultural affairs. Other organizations in the country are the Zionist Federation, B'nai B'rith, Wizo, and Maccabi. A bilingual Spanish-German bulletin, Informaciones, is published by the community. Interestingly, intermarriage is not as great of a problem in Ecuador as elsewhere since Jews form a separate middle-stratum between the upper, traditionally Catholic classes, and the lower classes of the indigenous population.
There is a Jewish school in Quito, the Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein, established in 1973, which serves both Jewish and non-Jewish students from kindergarten through the twelfth grade. All Jewish holidays are celebrated by the school, and Hebrew and other Jewish studies are taught there. The school has an excellent reputation and superb pre-college preparatory program. The Jewish community of Quito has its own building, a home for the aged, and a synagogue that holds services on the Sabbath and holidays.
Ecuador has traditionally maintained friendly relations with Israel, and has frequently supported Israel in the United Nations. The Ecuadorian Embassy is in Tel Aviv . In the late 1960's, a network of technical cooperation and assistance was developed between the two countries, especially in the fields of agriculture, and water development. Since 1948, 137 Ecuadorian Jews have emigrated to Israel
Sources: Beker, Dr. Avi. (ed.) Jewish Communities of the World. Lerner Publication Co. 1998."Ecuador," Encyclopedia Judaica
Channukah photo courtesy Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein

Jews in Ecuador

Source: www.geschichteinchronologie.ch

Jewish immigration in the NS period - agriculture project - industrialization - special middle strata -- ECUADOR, -- Jewish population figures -- Table. Jews in Ecuador 1917-1950 -- 1935-1936: Attempts ...

IBM as a monopoly in mainframes??????

2009-10-10T12:07:00.000+02:00

IBM as a monopoly in mainframes??????

U.S. Begins Antitrust Inquiry of I.B.M. in Mainframes - NYTimes.com

Source: www.nytimes.com

The Justice Department is investigating whether I.B.M. abused its monopoly position in a vital computing market.

e-book platforms

2009-10-10T12:03:00.000+02:00

Jimmy Schwarzkopf Just when we all thought that Amazon understood marketing... 40% more per book????? while Barnes & Noble will allow people to "share" books

Amazon admits: international Kindle users will pay more | Technology | guardian.co.uk

Source: www.guardian.co.uk

After saying foreign users would not be charged for downloads to the Kindle book reader, the company has now admitted that customers in Britain and elsewhere will pay a 40% premium for all books

Jimmy Schwarzkopf
Barnes and Noble wants to compete with Amazon's Kindle
Copying from research by Prof. Zhuand Prof, Iansiti from the Harvard Business School
we should hope that someone (at Barnes & Noble) has an answer to:
1.-what drives the success of a platform, installed base,platform quality or consumer expectations?
2.- when does a monopoly emerge in a platform-basedmarket?
3.- when is a platform-based market socially efficient?

Barnes & Noble E-Reader Could Come Oct. 20 With Lending Options - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com

Source: bits.blogs.nytimes.com

An invitation to a New York event suggests Barnes & Noble may introduce its e-reading device on Oct. 20 with a feature other devices don't have.

חמשת הגורמים שיובילו לצונאמי ב-IT הישראלי

2009-09-24T19:25:00.002+03:00

ג'ימי שוורצקוף23.09.09 | 22:49
חמשת הגורמים שיובילו לצונאמי ב-IT הישראלי
תעשיית ה-IT בישראל צפויה לעבור במהלך חמשת הרבעונים הקרובי "מגה-צונאמי". בסופה של תקופת מעבר זו נגלה כי שחקנים חדשים לגמרי שולטים בשוק. הנה הגורמים לכך
Israeli Hi-Tech and Startups
| לדף הבית של אתר TheMarker IT |
תעשיית ה-IT בישראל צפויה לעבור במהלך חמשת הרבעונים הקרובי "מגה-צונאמי". בסופה של תקופת מעבר זו נגלה כי שחקנים חדשים לגמרי שולטים בשוק. מספר רעידות אדמה קטנות יותר בתוך או מחוץ לישראל הן בעלות הפוטנציאל לייצר את הצונאמי הזה:

1. האייפון: עד 2011 ישראל תהפוך למדינת אפל
כמו בצרפת, כל חברות הסלולר תמכורנה בישראל את האייפון. כמו בצרפת, אנחנו מצפים שיהיה לו נתח שוק של לא פחות מ-70%. יותר ממיליון המכשירים שיימכרו על פי התחזיות בתוך פחות משנתיים יפתו את אפל ויזמים אחרים לפתח יישומים בעברית. ישראל הייתה מאז ומעולם מדינת מיקרוסופט. מוצרים רבים (למשל לוטוס) מעולם לא תפסו כאן בעיקר בשל התהליך הארוך והיקר של תרגום והתאמה של המוצרים לעברית. השתלטות האייפון על השוק הישראלי תגרום לאפל, סוף כל סוף, לתרגם את המוצרים שלה לעברית.
לאייפון יש את דרישות ה-IT שחיוניות על מנת שמכשיר סלולרי יצליח בסביבה עסקית - הוא כולל גישה אלחוטית לדוא"ל, אינטרנט, רשתות אינטראנט ארגוניות, יישומים ארגוניים, פנקס כתובות, היסטוריית פעולות, לוח שנה פרטי וארגוני ויכולת לאחסן מידע עסקי חשוב ולקבל ברקע מידע ועדכוני תוכנה כאשר הללו זמינים. האייפון 3GS תומך גם בהצפנת אקסצ'יינג' ואינטגרציה טובה מול התוכנות של מיקרוסופט.
2. מכרז ה"גולגולות" של משרד האוצר
כאשר החל פרויקט Y2K בישראל, היה צורך ב"קופי מקלדת" לכל הבדיקות הרבות שנדרשו. בתי תוכנה שכרו אנשים רבים לא מתאימים והעבירו אותם הכשרה מזורזת על מנת שיוכלו לבצע את הבדיקות. עד היום גובות חברות האינטגרציה בישראל 40 עד 50 אחוז יותר מהעלות של אותם קופי מקלדת. כך הפך תחום הגולגלות לתחום הרווחי ביותר בעסק שלהן ולעסק המועדף עבור מרבית, אם לא כל, החברות הישראליות.
עד 1998 חברות רבות התמודדו על חוזי מיקור חוץ במחירי הפסד בידיעה שעסקי הגולגלות שלהן יכסו על ההפסד. הן עשו זאת על מנת לנסות ולהגדיל את נתח השוק בתקופה של מיזוגים והנפקות. בתקופה זו החליטו מקצועני IT רבים במשרדי הממשלה ובצבא לעזוב את עבודתם ולחזור בתור ספקים חיצוניים. רבים מהם הקימו חברות קטנות של 10 עד 30 חברים. כולם קיבלו העלאה מיידית בשכר של 3 עד 40 אחוזים.
ב-1999 החליט משרד האוצר לאפשר למקצועני IT שעובדים עבור הממשלה לעזוב עם בונוסים של פרישה מוקדמת. הבורות המוחלטת של משרד האוצר הביאו אותו גם לקצץ את מרבית משרות ה-IT הממשלתיות. דבר זה הכריח מנמ"רים ממשלתיים לצאת למיקור חוץ או לשכור עובדי גולגלות (בדרך כלל עובדי ממשלה לשעבר, רק בפרמיה של 40%). עד 2001 ניסתה הממשלה לסגור מחלקות IT ולבנות באופן אקטיבי מרכז מחשוב אחד מרכזי (בדומה לזה אותו מכרה לידיים פרטיות בתחילת שנות ה-90'). התוכנית הממשלתית היתה לרכז במקום אחד את כל הפיתוח האינטרנטי ופיתוח ה-ERP ולהפעיל אותו באמצעות קבלנים חיצוניים.
בשנת 2003 אילץ מכרז כושל מנמ"רים בממשלה לעבור על החוק. החוזים היו כל כך נמוכים שקבלנים חיצוניים הועסקו לא על בסיס של שכר לשעה, אלא על בסיס מכפלות של תעריף זה. זה עלה לממשלה כסף רב וגרם נזק למוניטין. ב-2009 הבין סוף כל סוף משרד האוצר מה קורה. מכרז הגולגלות החדש של משרד האוצר, שפורסם לפני מספר חודשים, צפוי להביא עמו לא מעט שינויים: עובדי קבלן בסיכון נמוך (Low Risk Contracted Workers - כאלו שעובדים שנים רבות באותה חברה) "יימכרו" תמורת לא יותר מ-12% העלות שלהם. כך תווצר תחרות ברמת האיכות של העובדים, ולא רק במחיר. חברות קטנות לא תוכלנה למכור לממשלה. מרבית המנמ"רים מחוץ לממשלה ילכו בדרכו של משרד האוצר וינקטו בצעדים דומים. השינויים הללו ישתקפו בשורת הרווח של חברות ה-IT ב-2010. הן תהיינה חייבות להשתנות.
3. מחשוב עננים (פנימי וחיצוני)
על מנת להסביר טוב יותר את המושג של מחשוב עננים היינו צריכים לחזור אחורנית בהיסטוריה ולהיזכר בכמה מקרים בהם התעשייה סיפקה שירותי יישומים או מרכזי מידע וירטואליים. במהלך שנות ה-70' וה-80' הייתה לנו לשכת שירות למשכורות, ובשנות ה-90' היו לנו יישומים מבוססי ASP. מה שייחד אותם הייתה אי הגמישות שלהם. אז הגיע הרעיון להפוך את משאבי המחשוב לשירותים. השיפור המרכזי והחשוב ביותר שמציע מחשוב עננים הוא היכולת לספק את היישום המורכב הנכון במונחי עלות/תועלת למשתמש כאשר הגמישות היא מקסימלית והסיכון מינימלי.
יישום מורכב - Composite Application - הוא שירות IT הבנוי משילוב של שירותי יישומים (שנקרא Mashup) ושילוב של שירותי תשתית. כשאנו יודעים אילו שירותים ירכיבו את ה-mashup שלנו ואיזה ensemble הוא צריך על מנת לרוץ, אנחנו יכולים לבחור מהיכן לקחת את השירותים הללו. האפשרויות שלנו הן מכל אחד מתוך שלושה מרכזי נתונים: חוות השרתים המקומית הפרטית שלנו, חוות שרתים מרוחקת פרטית או מכל חברה המספקת מרכזי נתונים וירטואליים. אנחנו יכולים להחליט באיזה ensemble אנחנו משתמשים על מנת להריץ איזה mashup. כל הרעיון של בניית יישומים מורכבים משירותים (mashups ו-ensambles) בהתבסס על שירותים אחרים שיש לנו במרכז הנתונים שלנו או במרכזי נתונים של חברות חיצוניות נקרא מחשוב עננים. המהפכה הבאה כרוכה בהפיכת התשלום עבור השימוש בשירותים אלו לתשלום לפי דרישה (On Demand).
4. ניהול סיכונים ארגוני - ERM
כולם מנסים להבין את פונקציית ה-ERM החדשה (Enterprise Risk Management). פונקציה זו חסרה כעת בכל חדרי הישיבות והפרויקטים. איפה היא תנוהל? איך היא תימדד? השאלות הללו יזכו לתשובה מהר מאוד. "רבים מהארגונים שנכשלו או שנכשלים כעת סבלו מפוקוס צר מדי על ביצועים כספיים קצרי טווח. זוהי בדיוק הבעיה לה אמור היה ה-BSC (קיצור של Balanced Scorecard) לתת מענה. נקודת הראות הפיננסית של ה-BSC היא המקום הטבעי לניהול סיכונים ארגוני מבחינת הגדרת יעדים ומדידה", כותבים מחברי ה-Harvard Busines Review. "היעד הכללי מנקודת הראות הפיננסית של BSC היא לגדול ולשמר את הערך של בעלי המניות. באופן מסורתי, תמכנו בשתי שיטות להגדיל את הערך של בעלי המניות: גידול בהכנסות ושיפורי פרודוקטיביות. השיטה השלישית עבור שימור ערך בעלי המניות, שחסרה באסטרטגיות של חברות רבות, צריכה להיות ניהול סיכונים", הם מסכמים.
5. שינויים באסטרטגיה המשתקפת בפלטפורמות הדיגיטליות של ארגונים
המונח פלטפורמה דיגיטלית, מונח שמקורו במחקר שבוצע על ידי צוות מ-MIT, בא לייצג את את היישומים הספציפיים והתשתיות בארגוני לקוח. פלטפורמות דיגיטליות אלו נמצאות בתהליך שינוי. מרבית המנמ"רים בישראל ישנו/יבנו מחדש את מערכות הליבה שלהם בעתיד הקרוב. כל תהליך עסקי יהיה בעל שילוב של סטנדרטיזציה או אינטגרציה המשקפים את האסטרטגיה של המנכ"ל עבור החברה. תהליך עסקי זה יחייב מימוש משלו בתוך הפלטפורמה הדיגיטלית המתאימה. יהיו ארגונים שיחפשו מערכות ERP (מקורות, תנובה, וכו') בעוד אחרים יחפשו רק חלקים ממערכות הליבה שלהן (בנק הפועלים, לאומי למשכנתאות, וכו').
הכותב הנו מנכ"ל חברת המחקר STKI

Israeli IT Market Forecast for Q42009

2009-09-20T11:17:00.004+03:00

1. Most Israeli firms budgeted 30-40% of their capital expense acquisition monies for the Q4.

2. The government will start spending part of their 2 year IT budgets

3. Many firms (see below) are starting their change strategies NOW.

Which means we WILL have seasonal high and the beginning of IT spending for 2010. As we forecasted 2010 will be close to 2008 budgets (again).