Oct 30, 2009

The Israeli IT Market q42010

(Graph above from Bank of Israel.... deviation from the trend ...State of the economy index)

As we forecasted previously Q32009 and the month of October were “terrible” for the Israeli IT vendor industry. If we also see the attached graph from Bank of Israel we can see that the same trend went through all industries.

look and download at:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/stki-2010-forecasts

We expect the last quarter to “really pickup” and show itself as the best quarter of 2009, not only because of seasonal purchases but also as a window for a much better 2010. 2010 will show 2 digit growth in nearly all IT vendor markets.

Oct 12, 2009

As I come from Ecuador I made some research and found a very interesting article .....

As I come from Ecuador I made some research and found a very interesting article .....

Most historians assert that Jews were among the Spanish settlers of Ecuador in colonial times. Certain family names among established Ecuadorian families attest to their Sephardi ancestry; however, prior to World War II there was very little Jewish immigration to Ecuador. In 1904 there were only four Jewish families in the country, and a survey in 1917 indicated the presence of 14 Jews. After 1924, when the United States established its immigration quota system, a handful more arrived in Ecuador. Yet, only in the wake of the rise of Nazism and the ensuing Holocaust in Europe did the Jewish mass immigration to Ecuador began. During the years 1933-43 about 2,700 Jews arrived, and by 1945 there were 3,000 new Jewish immigrants, 85% of whom were refugees from Europe.
In the early years of World War II, Ecuador still admitted a certain amount of immigrants, and in 1939, when several South American countries refused to accept the 165 Jewish refugees from Germany aboard the ship "Koenigstein," Ecuador granted them entry permits. Nevertheless, the country eventually gave way to a policy of selectivity. Jewish immigration to Ecuador were supposed to be employed in the agricultural realm, but the authorities soon surmised that the immigrants were actually merchants, industrialists, and businessmen, and were not farming. As a result, in 1938 legislation was passed compelling any Jew not engaged in agriculture or industry to leave the country. In addition, entry rights were limited to those Jews who possessed a minimum of $400, which they would have to invest in an industrial project.
In 1935 the Comite pour l'Etude de l'Industrie de l'Immigration dans la Republique de l'Equateur was established in Paris by the organization, the Freeland League of Jewish Colonization, with the purpose of creating a settlement program in Ecuador. An agreement was reached with the Ecuadorian government to transfer 500,000 acres of land to the Committee's jurisdiction for a period of 30 years to be settled by immigrants regardless of race, religion, or nationality. Several concessions were also promised, such as tax exemption for three years, citizenship after one year, customs exemption, and free transportation by train from the port to the interior of the country. The president signed the agreement several months later on the condition that a detailed program be presented by May 1937 and that the Committee invest $8,000 and settle at least 100 families. Some Jewish organizations, however, found the land proposed for the plan unacceptable, claiming that it was too far from population centers and that the climate was too severe. The result of these objections was the total abandonment of the project.
Following this attempt, the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee and HICEM attempted to establish chicken farms for the immigrants in other areas of Ecuador, and 60 families were settled, but conditions precluded any success in the venture, which ultimately failed. Most of the immigrants were businessmen and professionals who preferred to carry on their professions. Interestingly, many discovered that the native balsa wood was excellent for furniture craft and began production. Later, these immigrants introduced iron and steel furniture to the Ecuadorian market, previously unknown to the country. They also developed retail stores and opened hotels. The success of the immigrants, however, caused tension among the Syrian and Cuban community who had previously controlled those fields of business. This pressure led to an anti-Jewish sentiment for awhile, but nothing more substantial.
At its peak, in 1950, the Jewish population of Ecuador was estimated at 4,000 persons, the majority living in Quito, several hundred in Guayaquil, and several scores in Ambato, Riobamba, and Cuenca. In 1952, a law was passed requiring every foreigner to supply proof that he was engaged in the occupation stipulated in his entry visa. The World Jewish Congress tried to help those Jews who were practicing business, but were only supposed to be in the agricultural sector; however, attempts at agricultural settlement were unsuccessful.
Prominent Ecuadorian Jews
Ecuadorian Jews have achieved prominence in various fields including academics, industry, and science. Benno Weiser (Benjamin Varon), who was an active Ecuadorian journalism, later entered the Israel diplomatic service and served in various Latin American countries. His brother, Max Weiser, was the first Israel consul in Ecuador.
In the industrial field, where Jews played an especially important role, the names Rothschild and Seligmann stand out in the area of the development of metal industries, and the pharmaceutical industry is indebted to Carlos Alberti Ottolenghi and Alberto Di Capua. Paul Engel, an endocrinologist and pathologist, was a co-founder of the Endocrine Society of Ecuador.
Modern Ecuador
Students celebrate Channukah at the Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein
The Jewish community of Ecuador is predominantly of German origin, but the younger generation is Spanish-speaking. The Ecuadorian Jewish community is a homogeneous group, a fact which has facilitated great communal organization. The Asociacion de Beneficencia Israelita, founded in 1938, is the central body for religious and cultural affairs. Other organizations in the country are the Zionist Federation, B'nai B'rith, Wizo, and Maccabi. A bilingual Spanish-German bulletin, Informaciones, is published by the community. Interestingly, intermarriage is not as great of a problem in Ecuador as elsewhere since Jews form a separate middle-stratum between the upper, traditionally Catholic classes, and the lower classes of the indigenous population.
There is a Jewish school in Quito, the Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein, established in 1973, which serves both Jewish and non-Jewish students from kindergarten through the twelfth grade. All Jewish holidays are celebrated by the school, and Hebrew and other Jewish studies are taught there. The school has an excellent reputation and superb pre-college preparatory program. The Jewish community of Quito has its own building, a home for the aged, and a synagogue that holds services on the Sabbath and holidays.
Ecuador has traditionally maintained friendly relations with Israel, and has frequently supported Israel in the United Nations. The Ecuadorian Embassy is in Tel Aviv . In the late 1960's, a network of technical cooperation and assistance was developed between the two countries, especially in the fields of agriculture, and water development. Since 1948, 137 Ecuadorian Jews have emigrated to Israel
Sources: Beker, Dr. Avi. (ed.) Jewish Communities of the World. Lerner Publication Co. 1998."Ecuador," Encyclopedia Judaica
Channukah photo courtesy Colegio Experimental Alberto Einstein

Source: www.geschichteinchronologie.ch
Jewish immigration in the NS period - agriculture project - industrialization - special middle strata -- ECUADOR, -- Jewish population figures -- Table. Jews in Ecuador 1917-1950 -- 1935-1936: Attempts ...

Oct 10, 2009

IBM as a monopoly in mainframes??????

IBM as a monopoly in mainframes??????


Source: www.nytimes.com
The Justice Department is investigating whether I.B.M. abused its monopoly position in a vital computing market.

e-book platforms

Jimmy Schwarzkopf Just when we all thought that Amazon understood marketing... 40% more per book????? while Barnes & Noble will allow people to "share" books

Source: www.guardian.co.uk
After saying foreign users would not be charged for downloads to the Kindle book reader, the company has now admitted that customers in Britain and elsewhere will pay a 40% premium for all books

Jimmy Schwarzkopf

Jimmy Schwarzkopf
Barnes and Noble wants to compete with Amazon's Kindle
Copying from research by Prof. Zhuand Prof, Iansiti from the Harvard Business School
we should hope that someone (at Barnes & Noble) has an answer to:
1.-what drives the success of a platform, installed base,platform quality or consumer expectations?
2.- when does a monopoly emerge in a platform-basedmarket?
3.- when is a platform-based market socially efficient?

Source: bits.blogs.nytimes.com
An invitation to a New York event suggests Barnes & Noble may introduce its e-reading device on Oct. 20 with a feature other devices don't have.
17 minutes ago · · · Share

Sep 24, 2009

חמשת הגורמים שיובילו לצונאמי ב-IT הישראלי


ג'ימי שוורצקוף23.09.09 | 22:49

חמשת הגורמים שיובילו לצונאמי ב-IT הישראלי

תעשיית ה-IT בישראל צפויה לעבור במהלך חמשת הרבעונים הקרובי "מגה-צונאמי". בסופה של תקופת מעבר זו נגלה כי שחקנים חדשים לגמרי שולטים בשוק. הנה הגורמים לכך
Israeli Hi-Tech and Startups

תעשיית ה-IT בישראל צפויה לעבור במהלך חמשת הרבעונים הקרובי "מגה-צונאמי". בסופה של תקופת מעבר זו נגלה כי שחקנים חדשים לגמרי שולטים בשוק. מספר רעידות אדמה קטנות יותר בתוך או מחוץ לישראל הן בעלות הפוטנציאל לייצר את הצונאמי הזה:


1. האייפון: עד 2011 ישראל תהפוך למדינת אפל

כמו בצרפת, כל חברות הסלולר תמכורנה בישראל את האייפון. כמו בצרפת, אנחנו מצפים שיהיה לו נתח שוק של לא פחות מ-70%. יותר ממיליון המכשירים שיימכרו על פי התחזיות בתוך פחות משנתיים יפתו את אפל ויזמים אחרים לפתח יישומים בעברית. ישראל הייתה מאז ומעולם מדינת מיקרוסופט. מוצרים רבים (למשל לוטוס) מעולם לא תפסו כאן בעיקר בשל התהליך הארוך והיקר של תרגום והתאמה של המוצרים לעברית. השתלטות האייפון על השוק הישראלי תגרום לאפל, סוף כל סוף, לתרגם את המוצרים שלה לעברית.

לאייפון יש את דרישות ה-IT שחיוניות על מנת שמכשיר סלולרי יצליח בסביבה עסקית - הוא כולל גישה אלחוטית לדוא"ל, אינטרנט, רשתות אינטראנט ארגוניות, יישומים ארגוניים, פנקס כתובות, היסטוריית פעולות, לוח שנה פרטי וארגוני ויכולת לאחסן מידע עסקי חשוב ולקבל ברקע מידע ועדכוני תוכנה כאשר הללו זמינים. האייפון 3GS תומך גם בהצפנת אקסצ'יינג' ואינטגרציה טובה מול התוכנות של מיקרוסופט.

2. מכרז ה"גולגולות" של משרד האוצר

כאשר החל פרויקט Y2K בישראל, היה צורך ב"קופי מקלדת" לכל הבדיקות הרבות שנדרשו. בתי תוכנה שכרו אנשים רבים לא מתאימים והעבירו אותם הכשרה מזורזת על מנת שיוכלו לבצע את הבדיקות. עד היום גובות חברות האינטגרציה בישראל 40 עד 50 אחוז יותר מהעלות של אותם קופי מקלדת. כך הפך תחום הגולגלות לתחום הרווחי ביותר בעסק שלהן ולעסק המועדף עבור מרבית, אם לא כל, החברות הישראליות.

עד 1998 חברות רבות התמודדו על חוזי מיקור חוץ במחירי הפסד בידיעה שעסקי הגולגלות שלהן יכסו על ההפסד. הן עשו זאת על מנת לנסות ולהגדיל את נתח השוק בתקופה של מיזוגים והנפקות. בתקופה זו החליטו מקצועני IT רבים במשרדי הממשלה ובצבא לעזוב את עבודתם ולחזור בתור ספקים חיצוניים. רבים מהם הקימו חברות קטנות של 10 עד 30 חברים. כולם קיבלו העלאה מיידית בשכר של 3 עד 40 אחוזים.

ב-1999 החליט משרד האוצר לאפשר למקצועני IT שעובדים עבור הממשלה לעזוב עם בונוסים של פרישה מוקדמת. הבורות המוחלטת של משרד האוצר הביאו אותו גם לקצץ את מרבית משרות ה-IT הממשלתיות. דבר זה הכריח מנמ"רים ממשלתיים לצאת למיקור חוץ או לשכור עובדי גולגלות (בדרך כלל עובדי ממשלה לשעבר, רק בפרמיה של 40%). עד 2001 ניסתה הממשלה לסגור מחלקות IT ולבנות באופן אקטיבי מרכז מחשוב אחד מרכזי (בדומה לזה אותו מכרה לידיים פרטיות בתחילת שנות ה-90'). התוכנית הממשלתית היתה לרכז במקום אחד את כל הפיתוח האינטרנטי ופיתוח ה-ERP ולהפעיל אותו באמצעות קבלנים חיצוניים.

בשנת 2003 אילץ מכרז כושל מנמ"רים בממשלה לעבור על החוק. החוזים היו כל כך נמוכים שקבלנים חיצוניים הועסקו לא על בסיס של שכר לשעה, אלא על בסיס מכפלות של תעריף זה. זה עלה לממשלה כסף רב וגרם נזק למוניטין. ב-2009 הבין סוף כל סוף משרד האוצר מה קורה. מכרז הגולגלות החדש של משרד האוצר, שפורסם לפני מספר חודשים, צפוי להביא עמו לא מעט שינויים: עובדי קבלן בסיכון נמוך (Low Risk Contracted Workers - כאלו שעובדים שנים רבות באותה חברה) "יימכרו" תמורת לא יותר מ-12% העלות שלהם. כך תווצר תחרות ברמת האיכות של העובדים, ולא רק במחיר. חברות קטנות לא תוכלנה למכור לממשלה. מרבית המנמ"רים מחוץ לממשלה ילכו בדרכו של משרד האוצר וינקטו בצעדים דומים. השינויים הללו ישתקפו בשורת הרווח של חברות ה-IT ב-2010. הן תהיינה חייבות להשתנות.

3. מחשוב עננים (פנימי וחיצוני)

על מנת להסביר טוב יותר את המושג של מחשוב עננים היינו צריכים לחזור אחורנית בהיסטוריה ולהיזכר בכמה מקרים בהם התעשייה סיפקה שירותי יישומים או מרכזי מידע וירטואליים. במהלך שנות ה-70' וה-80' הייתה לנו לשכת שירות למשכורות, ובשנות ה-90' היו לנו יישומים מבוססי ASP. מה שייחד אותם הייתה אי הגמישות שלהם. אז הגיע הרעיון להפוך את משאבי המחשוב לשירותים. השיפור המרכזי והחשוב ביותר שמציע מחשוב עננים הוא היכולת לספק את היישום המורכב הנכון במונחי עלות/תועלת למשתמש כאשר הגמישות היא מקסימלית והסיכון מינימלי.

יישום מורכב - Composite Application - הוא שירות IT הבנוי משילוב של שירותי יישומים (שנקרא Mashup) ושילוב של שירותי תשתית. כשאנו יודעים אילו שירותים ירכיבו את ה-mashup שלנו ואיזה ensemble הוא צריך על מנת לרוץ, אנחנו יכולים לבחור מהיכן לקחת את השירותים הללו. האפשרויות שלנו הן מכל אחד מתוך שלושה מרכזי נתונים: חוות השרתים המקומית הפרטית שלנו, חוות שרתים מרוחקת פרטית או מכל חברה המספקת מרכזי נתונים וירטואליים. אנחנו יכולים להחליט באיזה ensemble אנחנו משתמשים על מנת להריץ איזה mashup. כל הרעיון של בניית יישומים מורכבים משירותים (mashups ו-ensambles) בהתבסס על שירותים אחרים שיש לנו במרכז הנתונים שלנו או במרכזי נתונים של חברות חיצוניות נקרא מחשוב עננים. המהפכה הבאה כרוכה בהפיכת התשלום עבור השימוש בשירותים אלו לתשלום לפי דרישה (On Demand).

4. ניהול סיכונים ארגוני - ERM

כולם מנסים להבין את פונקציית ה-ERM החדשה (Enterprise Risk Management). פונקציה זו חסרה כעת בכל חדרי הישיבות והפרויקטים. איפה היא תנוהל? איך היא תימדד? השאלות הללו יזכו לתשובה מהר מאוד. "רבים מהארגונים שנכשלו או שנכשלים כעת סבלו מפוקוס צר מדי על ביצועים כספיים קצרי טווח. זוהי בדיוק הבעיה לה אמור היה ה-BSC (קיצור של Balanced Scorecard) לתת מענה. נקודת הראות הפיננסית של ה-BSC היא המקום הטבעי לניהול סיכונים ארגוני מבחינת הגדרת יעדים ומדידה", כותבים מחברי ה-Harvard Busines Review. "היעד הכללי מנקודת הראות הפיננסית של BSC היא לגדול ולשמר את הערך של בעלי המניות. באופן מסורתי, תמכנו בשתי שיטות להגדיל את הערך של בעלי המניות: גידול בהכנסות ושיפורי פרודוקטיביות. השיטה השלישית עבור שימור ערך בעלי המניות, שחסרה באסטרטגיות של חברות רבות, צריכה להיות ניהול סיכונים", הם מסכמים.

5. שינויים באסטרטגיה המשתקפת בפלטפורמות הדיגיטליות של ארגונים

המונח פלטפורמה דיגיטלית, מונח שמקורו במחקר שבוצע על ידי צוות מ-MIT, בא לייצג את את היישומים הספציפיים והתשתיות בארגוני לקוח. פלטפורמות דיגיטליות אלו נמצאות בתהליך שינוי. מרבית המנמ"רים בישראל ישנו/יבנו מחדש את מערכות הליבה שלהם בעתיד הקרוב. כל תהליך עסקי יהיה בעל שילוב של סטנדרטיזציה או אינטגרציה המשקפים את האסטרטגיה של המנכ"ל עבור החברה. תהליך עסקי זה יחייב מימוש משלו בתוך הפלטפורמה הדיגיטלית המתאימה. יהיו ארגונים שיחפשו מערכות ERP (מקורות, תנובה, וכו') בעוד אחרים יחפשו רק חלקים ממערכות הליבה שלהן (בנק הפועלים, לאומי למשכנתאות, וכו').

הכותב הנו מנכ"ל חברת המחקר STKI

חזרה לדף הבית

Sep 20, 2009

Israeli IT Market Forecast for Q42009


1. Most Israeli firms budgeted 30-40% of their capital expense acquisition monies for the Q4.
2. The government will start spending part of their 2 year IT budgets
3. Many firms (see below) are starting their change strategies NOW.

Which means we WILL have seasonal high and the beginning of IT spending for 2010. As we forecasted 2010 will be close to 2008 budgets (again).

2010: Israel IT changes by a real tsunami

The Israeli IT market will go through a MEGA TSUNAMI during the next 5 quarters and at the end of this "transition era" we will find "new players" dominating the market. Several "smaller" earthquakes or disturbances in or outside of Israel have the potential to generate this Tsunami:

1. Changes in the strategy reflected in the “DIGITAL PLATFORMS” of enterprises.

The term Digital Platform comes from research done by (http://www.amazon.com/Savvy-What-Executives-Must-Know/dp/1422181014) a team at MIT and will be used by STKI analysts from now on in order to describe the specific applications and infrastructures in client organizations. This “digital platforms” are in the process of change. Most Israeli CIOs will change/rebuild their core systems in the near future. These changed digital platforms will reflect the strategy by management in standardization/integration of business processes.

Every BP will have its own mix of standardization or integration reflecting the CEO’s strategy for the company. This BP will require its own implementation inside the particular digital platform. Several enterprises will look for ERP systems (Mekorot, Tnuva, etc) while others will look only for parts of their core systems (Bank Poalim, Leumi Mashkantaot, etc.).

2. Enterprise Risk Management….. ERM

Everyone is trying to understand the new ERM (Enterprise Risk Management) function. It was missing in all boardrooms and projects.

Where will it be managed ? how will it be measured?

These questions will be answered very fast and vendors will have solutions by 1H2010.

–“Many of the failed or failing organizations suffered from having a much too narrow focus on short-term financial performance. This is exactly the problem that the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) was designed to mitigate. And the BSC's financial perspective is the natural location for enterprise risk management (ERM) objectives and measures. The high-level objective in BSC's financial perspective is growing and sustaining shareholder value. Traditionally, we have advocated two methods to drive shareholder value: revenue growth and productivity improvements. The third method for sustaining shareholder value, missing in many companies' strategies, should be risk management.“-http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/hbr/kaplan-norton/2008/12/how-to-measure-your-companys-r.html

3. Cloud Computing (internal and external)

I have been trying to explain the concept of "cloud computing" to several of my clients (Enterprise CIOs). If you click here you can get the Hebrew transcript of the CTO Round table on the subject.

In order to explain it better we have to go back in history and remember several instances when the industry gave “virtual” data center/application services.

During the 70s and 80s we had accounting and payroll service bureaus and in the 90s we had ASPs for many applications. What distinguished them was their rigidity.

Then, came the whole notion of services.

Delivering client needed services and using services in order to create composite applications. There were some efforts (still are) that mixed services from the on-site data center with those from another “virtual” data center.

The main and most important advancement that cloud computing offers is the:

ability to deliver the “right” cost-effective composite application to the user where agility is maximized and risk minimized based on the three pillars of: speed, cost and quality.

The most important definition to get through should be COMPOSITE APPLICATION. Well, a composite application is a IT service that a user gets (fast, cheap and with high quality) composed of a mix of application services (called a MASHUP) and a mix of infrastructure services (called an ENSEMBLE).

Well now that we know what services will make up our mashup and what ensemble it needs in order to run we can choose from where we take those services. Our options are from any of 3 data centers: our on-site DC, our off-site DC or from any of vendor supplied virtual data center.

We can decide what ensemble we use in order to run which mashup…… composite application. This whole idea of building App (composite applications) from services (mashups and ensembles) based on other services we have in our data centers or in vendor data centers is called CLOUD COMPUTING.

The next revolution there is also how we pay for the use of this services from virtual data centers. ON DEMAND.

4. iPhone: by 2011 we will be an Apple Country because all of the factors below:

Like in France all cellular suppliers will sell iPhones and like in France we expect that it will have a market share of not less than 70%.

The more than 1 million iPhones (expected to be sold in less than 2 years) will entice Apple and other entrepreneurs to have Hebrew applications

Israel had been a “Microsoft” country. Many products (ie. Lotus) never made a dent. All because of the very expensive localization and translation of software into Hebrew

Hebrew in all Apple products: Now we will have Apple’s office and applications running in Macs and iPhones.

The iPhone has the IT requirements that are essential for a mobile device to succeed in the business environment a. These include wireless access to: Email, Internet, Corporate Intra nets, Enterprise applications (ERP, CRM, SFA, etc.), Customer contact Information and history, Personal and corporate calendars and also the the ability to store business-critical data and to receive behind-the-scenes data and software updates as they become available.

In order to use a “mobile device in the enterprise we also need the following: Security comprises confidentiality, Integrity and availability. In other words that messages are reasonably difficult to decrypt without a key; that one can rely on the source of a message and be sure it reached its intended recipient; and that the asset or network will remain available.

In other words a “Blackberry” look alike. iPhone 3GS supports Exchange encryption and good Microsoft application integration.

5. The "contractor" (gulgalot in Hebrew) RFP from the Ministry of Finance. In order to understand this we have to go back to 1996.

a. When Y2K projects in Israel started there was a need for “keyboard monkeys” for all the testing going on. Software houses hired many “very” unqualified people but passed them through “laundering training” and qualified them for testing (at the same time Mercury (an Israeli software developer.. now part of HP) came out with automatic testing software).

b. Israeli Integrators where charging 40% to 50 % (over the cost of this keyboard monkeys), making it the most profitable part of their business.

c. Many other projects where changed into this type of business and contracting (gulgalot) became the business of choice for most if not all Israeli vendors.

d. By 1998 many vendors where bidding for ERP and OUTSOURCING at a loss knowing that their “contracting” business will cover the loss. This was done because vendors where fighting for market share in a market during consolidation and IPOs

e. During this time many IT professionals in the government and in the IDF decided to leave their jobs and return as “contractors”. Many of them formed small companies of 10 to 30 “friends”. All of them got immediate 3% to 40% increase in their salaries.

f. To make matters worse, the Ministry of Finance in 1999 decided to let IT PROFESSIONALS working in the government leave with “early retirement” bonuses. Their (MoF) complete ignorance made them also cut most IT jobs in the government. Forcing government CIOs to either outsource or hire “contract” workers (usually ex-employees at a 40% premium).

g. By 2001 the government was trying to close IT departments and actively building a “big” central computer center (similar to the one they sold to private hands in the early 1990s). Their plans where to centralize all WEB and ERP development and later run it with “outside contractors”.

h. In 2003 a “terrible” RFP forced CIOs in government to break the law. The contract where so low that “contractors” where hired not at hourly rates but multipliers of that rate. This cost the government money and reputation.

i. Finally in 2009, the Ministry of Finance realized what had been happening. With the new contract several changes will occur:

Low Risk Contracted Workers (those working for many years at the present place) could be “sold” for no more than 12% on cost. Competition on the quality of the contractor not only on the price. High Risk Specialized Workers could get over the amount even present rates. Small “friendship” based companies could not sell to the government.

Most CIOs outside the government will copy this step by the Min of Finance.

THESE CHANGES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE PROFIT LINE OF IT VENDORS IN 2010. They will have to change


Sep 11, 2009

שנה טובה - Happy New Year

Aug 30, 2009

An Open Letter To Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd


I was thinking about writting a letter to HP's CEO and I read one that fits my views... so I just copied it here. But I included some of my comments ........

HP should become The Transformation Company, helping CIOs reverse the deadly 80/20 ratio and become drivers of growth.

By Bob Evans, InformationWeek
Aug. 20, 2009
URL: http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=219400776


Dear Mark:

Congrats on the Q3 results ---you met your May guidance targets and are projecting some nice revenue and earnings growth for next quarter. As such, your decision a year ago to buy EDS seems to be paying off handsomely as its profits anchored the entire company's performance (JS: although the firing of many of the managers and IP holders was MISMANAGED... services are NOT commodities)

I wanted to drop you this letter against the backdrop of your earnings report this week and your related comment that "HP will be an early beneficiary of an economic turnaround and will continue to outperform when conditions improve." As a fairly close follower of the IT industry and a particularly close observer of the CIO community that is one of HP's most important customer sets, I'd like to share a few thoughts about your company's enterprise customers, their challenges and expectations, and the huge potential HP has for helping them overcome those challenges and surpass those expectations. I'll start with a short list and then go into more detail for each of the four items.

1. Much or perhaps even most of your company's revenue comes from business customers whose needs are increasingly sophisticated and urgent, but a Bloomberg News story two days ago about your earnings report begins with this description of your company: "Hewlett-Packard Co., the world's largest personal-computer company . . . " Is that the image you want for HP? (JS: definetly hurts with Israeli Enterprise Clients)


2. HP's R&D was cut by $228 million year-on-year, and some business customers could see that as HP pulling back from its hard-earned reputation as a vigorous innovator. What's the deeper story here about HP's evolving approach to R&D? (JS: Software leadership requires high R&D investment and now the IT market's transformation into Industry in a BOX means no more advantage in commodities)

3. While your company's financial performance has demonstrated your talent as a vigorous cost-cutter, it's not clear to everyone what your corresponding long-term strategy is. EDS is a piece, but what does the whole enterprise puzzle look like? (JS: especially the departure of being a commodity company into one with extensive new IP in software and other areas)

4. The new top priority for every CIO---whether he/she knows it or not---is attacking the 80/20 monster to liberate IT funds from internal infrastructure and operations and apply them toward revenue growth. In CIO Randy Mott, you have the guy who wrote the book on how to do it spectacularly well. With that, you can become, if I might suggest, The Transformation Company.

1. The PC Company

Not a darned thing wrong with having become #1 in this wicked, cut-throat, low-margin, fickle, and highly exposed business. Rather, the problem is whether you want to hold on to that top spot in this wicked, cut-throat, low-margin, fickle, and highly vulnerable business. IBM shipped its PC headaches off to Lenovo, which can handle and even enjoy the brutal and commodity-driven dynamics of that business because that's what Lenovo does as its core business.

Then there's the inevitable Rise Of The Little Machines, as businesses are beginning to turn away from today's incredibly powerful and capable notebooks and toward smartphones and netbooks. Your PC revenue fell 18%---how much of that was due to the rotten economy and how much was due to a shift toward lighter, simpler platforms? PC profit margins are dwindling as well: last year in Q3, profit was $587 million or 5.7% of revenue, but this year it was $386 million or only 4.6% of revenue. Do you have reason to believe PCs can ever again achieve 10% margins?

In a similar vein, while a dollar of profit is a dollar of profit, doesn't it seem a little incongruous that (a) your company is the largest IT company on Earth and (b) its moving into more-sophisticated engagements with some of the world's biggest corporations but (c) there exists a half-true, half-urban-legend perception that most of HP's profits come from the sale of ink?

2. Your R&D Budget Cuts

Hewlett-Packard has long prided itself on innovation. So it was a bit of a jolt to see in this week's financials that R&D spending had been cut 25%. As my erudite colleague Alex Wolfe argues nearby:

It's also important to note that periodic lab revamps are nothing new, as when IBM (NYSE: IBM) Research famously told its scientists that their work had to be more closely connected to actual products. HP spent $3.543 billion in FY2008. So far this fiscal year, the figure is $2.115 billion for the nine months ending July 31, 2009. (This compares to $2.701 billion for the comparable year-earlier period).

A recent article described how HP and some other global corporations are shifting some R&D efforts toward "open innovation" to tap into the big brains of academics and other specialists around the globe for exposure to new ideas and focused collaboration on specific projects. This certainly seems like the sort of dynamic adjunct to HP's existing R&D efforts that The Transformation Company should be pushing.

3. What Is The Mark Hurd Strategy For HP?

On HP's website, the page listing company executives has a photo of you with a link saying, "Read the article: Mark Hurd's Moment." The article is a reprint from aFortune and it offers a solid picture of you as a highly disciplined manager, a numbers-lover, and an efficiency expert. It also says next to nothing about your vision for the company over the next few years or your strategy for competing with IBM and Cisco and Accenture and Dell and EMC and others.

This strategy stuff might not be your favorite subject, but it's pretty darned indispensable these days to your CIO customers. As they evaluate which IT vendors should become intimately involved business partners, what do you want those CIOs to think about HP and where it's headed?

As an example of what I'm talking about, here's IBM CEO Palmisano addressing a group of institutional investors and financial analysts a few months ago. Agree with him or disagree with him, but there's no question---none---what his strategy is for IBM:

"We can do intelligent grids, we can do smart health care IT, we can do road systems and traffic-congestion charting, we can do we can do we can do. We can do the Smart Shanghai for the Shanghai Expo in 2010 -- we can do we can do we can do -- right? -- and that's where a lot of the stimulus is geared, not just on creating jobs to fill potholes and fix bridges. So we've been able to align in that regard and we continue to invest in a lot of those areas to capture those opportunities.

"So we're not saying it's easier for us than for anybody else -- we're just saying we don't have the dependency that other people have -- that's all. We're not seeing a different world: It is what it is. We just don't have the dependency on it that others have. Therefore we haven't slashed the pay of our people, we haven't cut all their compensation, we haven't furloughed, we haven't we haven't we haven't."

And here, said Palmisano, is one of the primary reasons why CIOs should believe in---and spend lots of money with and make long commitments to---IBM:

"Now look: we got it all. Why? Since nobody's asking us why---[but they do ask] 'No one expects you to [make projections], so why would you do it?' Because you need to keep things in perspective: We are not like the other companies in the IT industry. We're not. We've completely transformed the IBM company. We're not."

Having transformed itself, IBM has begun doing the same for its customers. But as good as IBM is, you've got an asset that IBM doesn't have: your CIO and EVP Randy Mott. Because with Mott, if I may borrow a Palmisano-ism, HP is not like the other companies in the IT industry. Let me explain why.

4. EVP and CIO Randy Mott

Mark, about the closest that Fortune article ever gets to discussing strategy is this passage about a meeting you had with customers before the NBA All-Star game:

Hurd is showing them how to reinvent themselves the HP way. He explains to this group of executives, from giants like American Express and DirecTV to local small-fry like direct-mail printer AmazingMail.com, a buyer of HP's graphic printing presses, that HP has slashed the software applications it uses companywide from 6,000 to 1,500. It consolidated its data centersfrom 85 to 6. HP's own IT department from 19,000 people to 8,000---all so the company could hire more salespeople. Hurd is preaching to the IT-manager choir. HP's guests would be heroes if they too could slim down their organizations.

Heroes---indeed! But that article misses the real point of what you and Randy Mott achieved with your internal IT overhaul: the real payoff was profoundly revitalizing HP by making it possible to shift money unproductive internal stuff to bringing board new salespeople, while also cutting hundreds of millions from administration, facilities, utility bills, security, and more. It also helped Mott fulfill your assignment of generating not just more information, but better information. 'Slimming down' doesn't begin to describe the impact.

Now take that room of a dozen or so CIOs at the All-Star game and extrapolate their concerns, challenges, nightmares, wishes, frustrations, and hopes to every CIO in every business in every industry in the world, and you've got what must surely become the #1 CIO priority for the next few years: reverse the intractable 80/20 ratio so that your customers can begin devoting only 20% instead of 80% of their budgets to maintenance and internal operations, while liberating millions or tens of millions (and even hundreds of millions in some cases) to be used for such heroic endeavors as hiring more salespeople or aggressively launching growth-oriented business-technology projects that engage and embrace customers and create new opportunities and let those CIOs help remake their companies in the image of what their customers want and need them to be instead of just perpetuating what they've always been.

Those transformations can happen with the help of The Transformation Company because no one in the world has ever done it better, faster, or more productively than your CIO Randy Mott. But of course you know all about him because you were the one who was smart enough to hire him away from Dell because you knew what he'd done there and at Wal-Mart was exactly what HP needed---desperately---for you to begin turning it into a growth company again.

And I'm telling you, Mark, you've got a world full of CIOs who recognize with great urgency that they simply cannot remove the CEO's heel from their neck and begin pursuing growth opportunities until they attack the 80/20 monster and lower the cost of infrastructure.

Show 'em the way, Mark. Help CIOs around the world kill the 80/20 beast that is spoiling their dreams and aspirations. Make those CIOs heroes. Become The Transformation Company.


Aug 26, 2009

TheMarker IT (article about IT spending in Israel)


אופטימיות זהירה. שוורצקופף, לופז וגינדין

כך מעריך ג'ימי שוורצקופף מנכ"ל חברת המחקר STKI. במלאת שנה למשבר הוא צופה פריחה והתעוררות בסוף 2009. ב-IDC וגרטנר רואים את בלימת ההאטה, אך התאוששות תגיע רק ב-2010

24.08.09 | 17:55 אור הירשאוגה
Israeli Hi-Tech and Startup |

בחלוף שנה למשבר רואים בכירי חברות המחקר בתחום ה-IT סימנים ראשונים להתאוששות, אולם עדיין יש ביניהם חילוקי דעות ביחס לרמת ההתאוששות הצפויה, תזמונה וחלוקתה לתחומי פעילות. כך, בעוד שמנכ"ל חברת המחקר STKI, ג'ימי שוורצקופף סבור כי אנו עומדים לפני גל של פרוייקטי מחשוב בכל השוק הארגוני בישראל, סבור מנכ"ל חברת המחקר IDC ישראל, גדעון לופז כי הנתונים משקפים את בלימת הירידה ולא בהכרח גידול. גם ברוך גינדין, מנכ"ל גרטנר ישראל, אינו שותף להערכות האופטימיות, יש יאמרו האופטימיות מדי.

שוורצקופף פרסם את התחזית שלו בבלוג שלו ברשת האינטרנט: "בהסתמך על פגישות רבות, מפות דרך טכנולוגיות של לקוחות, מפגשים ואירועים ומפגשים חברתיים מהחודש האחרון אני יכול להתחיל לחזות את תחילתה של התרחבות בשוק ה-IT הישראלי, זאת לאחר שנה בה ירד נפח השוק". שוורצקופף מעריך כי תחילת ההתרחבות בשוק תחול לאחר תקופת החגים של ספטמבר אוקטובר. למרות ההערכות האופטימיות מציין שוורצקופף כי הערכות חברת המחקר על קיטון של 12% בשוק ה-IT הישראלי ל2009 עדיין בתוקף.

"יש כרגע התעוררות בשוק ה-IT", קבע שוורצקופף בשיחה עם TheMarker IT "ברבעון האחרון של 2008 וברבעון הראשון של 2009 נעצרו לגמרי השקעות ב-IT. הרבעון השלישי מת בגלל הקיץ ובגלל החגים. ברבעון האחרון של השנה יהיה גידול ויהיו פרוייקטים כמעט בכל הארגונים", הוא מסביר. "חברות הביטוח, הטלקום, הבנקים, הצבא - כולם יוצאים עכשיו בפרוייקטים. כמעט אין משרד ממשלתי שלא הולך להוציא מכרז - רובם יצאו בנובמבר ודצמבר, בחודשים האלו ההתעוררות תגיע לשיאה. השנה הבאה תהיה טובה", הוא קובע. שוורצקופף מעריך כי למרות הקיצוץ בתכנון השנתי לתקציבי ה-IT ב2009 ארגונים רבים יבצעו השקעות בתחום ברבעון האחרון של השנה. "מרבית הארגונים קבעו ל-2009 תקציב חצי שנתי, עכשיו אנחנו מתחילים לראות שחרור של פרוייקטים", הוא מסביר. בין השאר מצביע שוורצקופף על פרוייקטים בבזק, סלקום, מנורה, ובנק הפועלים, כל אחד מאלו בהיקפים ניכרים. "אחת החברות אפילו השתמשה בתקציבים שיועדו ל-2010 כדי להתחיל עכשיו בפרוייקט מחשוב", הוא מציין.

השוק לא חוזר לצמוח, רק מפסיק לרדת

אנליסטים אחרים אינם שותפים לאופטימיות של שווקצופף. גדעון לופז, מנכ"ל חברת המחקר IDC ישראל סבור כי גם גידול מסויים מסויים ברבעון השני של 2009 לעומת הרבעון הראשון במספר מגזרים, למשל במגזר החומרה, "הנתונים לא מראים שהשוק חזר לצמוח, הם מראים כי הוא הפסיק לרדת". לופז מציין כי הגידולים המדוברים אינם גדולים ומכנה אותם "רעשים". "יש עדיין מספר מגזרים שנמצאים עדיין בתהליך של מיצוי המשאבים הקיימיים לפני הוצאה נוספת, למשל תחומי האחסון ופרוייקטים רחבים. הדברים האלו לא השתנו עדיין - מנהל מערכות מידע שקיבל הוראה להוריד את תקציב המחשוב ב-20% ב-2009, יבצע את ההוראה במשך כל 2009 - הוא לא יקבל פתאום הוראה שונה", הוא מסביר. "הקיטון בשוק לא ישתנה בעתיד הקרוב, אך הוא לא יחריף. אם הגעת לתחתית הבאר אפשר רק לעלות, אבל לא הייתי מפרש את זה כעלייה בשוק", מסביר לופז.

לופז סבור שהמגמה בשוק ה-IT הישראלי תשתנה רק במהלך הרבעון השני והשלישי של 2010. הוא מציין כי מספר תחומים, דוגמת התחום הצרכני, כמעט לא סובלים כלל מהאטה. "התחום הצרכני נהנה מביקושים חיים", מסביר לופז שמוסיף כי בתחום זה אנו צופים כעת ב"שינוי דגשים שלאו דווקא קשור למצב הכלכלי - הצרכנים עוברים לנטבוקים ומחשבים ניידים". ביחס לתוצאותיהן של חברות השירותים מעריך לופז כי היציאה מהמשבר תורגש רק ב-2010 ואולי אף רק ב-2011. "החוזים הארוכים בשוק הזה גורמים לכך שזהו תחום שנכנס מאוחר להאטה, וגם יוצא ממנה מאוחר", הוא קובע ומעריך כי "השוק הזה נכנס לתקופה לא קלה - אמנם לא תהיה ירידה משמעותית בהכנסות, אך מקורות הצמיחה יפגעו ויהיה קשה מאד לגדול". 'חזרה לשגרה' וכניסה לפרוייקטים חדשים, מעריך לופז, יתרחשו רק ב-2011.

התעוררות בתחום הצרכני

גם ברוך גינדין, מנכ"ל גרטנר ישראל, סבור כי השוק הצרכני הוא התחום הראשון שבו תחול התעוררות הוא תחום המחשוב האישי. "שוק המחשוב האישי הפסיק כבר את הצלילה והוא יראה גידול של כאחוז", קובע גינדין. "התחום הבא שבו תחול התעוררות הוא שוק השבבים שחווה ירידה של 20% בדרישה, ואחריו יבוא תורו של תחום התקשורת שניזוק פחות", הוא ממשיך. גינדין מציין כי לפי ההערכות של חברת המחקר גרטנר צמיחה "בריאה ויציבה" בתחום הIT תתרחש רק ב-2011 "ההתיישרות מהצלילה תקרה בסוף ,2009 או ברבעון הראשון של 2010 עם שונות לכל תחום", הוא אומר.

ההוצאה הכוללת על תחום המחשוב בישראל מגיעה, להערכתו של גינדין, ל-4.2 מיליארד דולר בשנה. "בשנה האחרונה ראינו ירידה של 3-4 אחוז", קובע גינדין. "בתקופה האחרונה אנחנו רואים כי תחום השירותים מפסיק להינזק. "חברות השירותים נמצאות כרגע במצב שטוח, בשוק הצרכני יהיה גידול קל - לא קורה עדיין משהו עצום, צריך לשים את הדברים במקומם".

Aug 21, 2009

Start of Expansion in the Israeli IT market

Based on the many meetings, client technological road maps, round tables and social occassions this last month I can start "forecasting" an expansion in the market after over one year of downturn that even felt like a meltdown (Q42008 and Q12009).
And as I wrote in several occasions the IT start of expansion in Israel will probably start after the high Jewish holidays of September and October.
The STKI forecast for IT market growth of -12% for Israel is still on track and the forecast of other analysts can be read here .

The picture (above) shows the 1990-2009 yearly data (STKI IT market forecast and BoI data):
1. STKI identified a high startistical correlation between it's IT rate of change numbers and the numbers given by the Bank of Israel (composite state-of-the-economy index (deviation from the trend) based on the Markov regime-switching model).

2.- The composite index and especially the deviation from the trend numbers gives an accurate description of the business cycle ex post facto, with regard to their high correlation with the GDP, final uses and employment series, and with regard to identifying the turning points in the cycle in real time. The probability of recession successfully detects a downturn immediately, and more sharply about two months after its onset. The start of expansion, however, takes longer to detect. Bank of Israel page on the subject.

Aug 15, 2009

Jimmy's gadget of Summer 2009




wow!!!!! and it works

Hope all of you can take a poll.... please





http://apps.facebook.com/realpolls/m/4uthmqza9

Aug 11, 2009

My reading list (books you should read this summer)




the link to my book list is:


Aug 1, 2009

The road to "recovery"


Now that we are planning our "company's" recovery we have to look at paradigm shifts in strategy research.
In my next couple of entries I will summarize research by one of its leaders: Prof. Teece.
As we can see from the slide... most of the intangibles in accounting are very tangible by us in IT.



Jul 24, 2009

STKI Rountables for downloading

STKI runs "roundtables" in many topics and the participants are understood to have agreed to a free discussion on the topic. People speak as individuals, and express views that may not be those of their organizations. Speakers are free to voice their own opinions, without concern for their personal reputation or their official duties and affiliations. We aim to guarantee anonymity to those speaking in the roundtables. No vendors or press are ever present.


Jul 21, 2009

Finally: as expected the Israeli Economy has positive growth



As expected the Israeli economy has a monthly positive rate of change.
STKI expects Q32009 to be not good for IT vendors. Part of it because of summer vacations and Jewish holidays.
We expect projects to start and end of year seasonal buying to help vendors show finally a "better quarter" during Q42009.
The government, telecomm and financial markets will be the first to recover.
IT spending will be -12% for the year but we expect a much better 2010.

Jul 12, 2009

2010 what do we do ? clients can download it


you can download it at

2010 what do we do ?

This is my presentation about IT and the Economy for 2H2009

Jun 30, 2009

Again..... a quote relevant to the "times" we are living



We are always more anxious to be distinguished for a talent which we do not possess, than to be praised for the fifteen which we do possess.

— Mark Twain

Office of the CIO: IT Cost Transparency

IT Cost Transparency (WIKIPEDIA article) is a new category of IT Management software that enables IT organizations to model, track and charge the total cost to deliver and maintain the services they provide.

It is increasingly a task of the “Office of the CIO”.

IT Cost Transparency solutions track:

· financial information such as labor,

· software licensing costs,

· hardware acquisition and depreciation,

· data center facilities charges

· operational data from ticketing and monitoring,

finally using project portfolio and asset management systems to provide a single, integrated view of IT costs by service, department, GL line item and project.

This can and is used for chargeback.

Costs, budgets, performance metrics and changes to data points are tracked over time to highlight trends and the impact of changes to underlying cost drivers in order to help managers address the key drivers in escalating IT costs and improve planning.


It also tracks utilization, usage and operational performance metrics in order to provide a measure of value or ROI.

software solutions include:

§ Simplified or automated collection of key cost driver data

§ An allocation or cost modeling interface

§ Custom reporting and analysis of unit cost drivers, including CIO dashboards

§ Ability to track operational metrics such as utilization, service levels, support tickets along with cost

§ Bill of IT reports for chargeback or service allocation to Lines of Business

§ Forecast and budget tracking versus actual and over time

§ Hypothetical scenario planning for new project ROI analysis

§ Cost benchmarking against industry averages or common metrics

IT Roadmaps and Strategy


The economic crisis has wreaked havoc on many companies and industries, yet results from a McKinsey survey taken in early June suggest that, for some at least, the changes have not been all bad.

For example, we at STKI have been part and will take past in many IT roadmap assessments that will finalize this summer.

This roadmaps are connected to the company's strategic planning process. Again we see no difference between Israeli companies and their counterparts in the USA and Europe.
If you are a client of STKI please feel free to call and schedule your "roadmap analyzer" meeting.

2010 will test the Israeli Insurance Industry

2010 will test the Israeli insurance industry.

The “recession” hit an industry that had been seen as a safe employment haven, and, because of its financial conservatism,it shifted its cost-cutting focus into high gear very early in the recession leaving their traditional vendors especially vulnerable.

We see now a series of “new initiatives” in areas like loan management, capital investment management, agent performance management, business intelligence and analytics, CRM (defining who is the client, finally) and parts of the core insurance applications.

Another area that we are going to see a lot of movement is INFRASTRUCTURE management and more outsourcing.

A CIO's diary


A friend .... CIO for many years
has started an excelent diary or better said a "helper" for other CIO's
As I know him, I know it will be great.
Recommend it (pity it is only in Hebrew)

Jun 26, 2009

Prices: USA/Europe for Vista to Windows 7 and only 25 per company in Israel also ???

Microsoft today announced pricing plans for its new Windows 7 operating system, which will end up costing consumers less than its oft-vilified Vista counterpart.

Specifically, the estimated prices in the United States for a Windows 7 upgrade are:

* Windows 7 Home Premium (Upgrade): $119.99
* Windows 7 Professional (Upgrade): $199.99
* Windows 7 Ultimate (Upgrade): $219.99

And the estimated prices for the full Windows 7 package are:

* Windows 7 Home Premium (Full): $199.99
* Windows 7 Professional (Full): $299.99
* Windows 7 Ultimate (Full): $319.99

Windows 7 Home Premium, likely the most popular of the three editions available at retail, at €119.99 in the European Union (EU) and charge £79.99 in the U.K., an EU member that has retained its own currency. Those prices are the equivalent to $168.66 and $132.14 U.S., respectively,


Microsoft also says that consumers who purchase new PCs before Windows 7 goes on sale will get free upgrades once it is released in the fall.

In a blow to businesses that need to purchase more than a handful of new computers between now and Windows 7's Oct. 22nd release date, Microsoft has limited the number of machines that can be upgraded to its new operating system for free to 25.

European customers will pay up to twice as much for Windows 7 compared to U.S. users, even though the new operating system will ship without a browser in Europe, according to Microsoft.

Jun 22, 2009

Excelent IDEA: sell "used" software licenses


While looking at some weekend bloggers I found the following at Frank Savo (Computer Economics)'s.

Company called USEDSOFT (www.usedsoft.com)

UsedSoft trades with second-hand software licences, which have been resold at least once by developers or dealers directly to users. Those licenses handle non-material copyrights for software. Used software is traded basically for two reasons:
First, applications may run out of use, e.g. after mergers and insolvencies.
Second, software licences are purchased, but do not get to be used.

The purchase of second-hand licences offers the user companies significant saving perspectives compared to the initial software acquisition – without having to cope with any disadvantages in exchange, since
  • software cannot wear out.

  • usedSoft guarantees and notarises the legal security of an acquisition by purchase and sales invoices, respectively licence certificates.

  • the after-sales services of the developers (maintenance, support) for all software licences sold by usedSoft are available to the user without any restrictions.
Yet, not only the purchasers of used licences benefit from this concept: The second-hand market also offers overlicensed enterprises the chance to sell licences which are no more needed. Thus, part of the formerly invested assets can be repatriated to the company.

The Business Concept

Purchase: Due to excellent connections to users on an international level as well as to liquidators, usedSoft has a wide portfolio of inexpensive software licences for all application areas. You wish to sell licences? usedSoft buys in software licences rendered useless from enterprises and other institutions. This may be due to system changes, staff reductions, cuts in business segments, respectively insolvencies etc. Moreover, when selling software, usedSoft accepts other used licences as payment. On demand, usedSoft can also update purchased licences of older software versions.

Sale:
Generally, usedSoft has software licenses of the prevalent standard products in stock; special requirements can be provided quick and easily over the existing supply network. If needed, just add a short message to your Licence Request. One of the usedSoft sales agents will immediately contact you and submit a tailor-made offer covering your specific demands. With each sold licence, usedSoft provides you with a notarised confirmation documenting the legitimacy of the purchase.

Israeli State of the Economy Index & IT Market Rate of Change




STKI has studied the relationship between two variables, "rate of change of the State of the Economy Index" (especially its deviation of the trend numbers) with our own IT market rate of change. We have found it has "highly" significant correlation . In other words we have a hypothesis that "whatever" Bank of Israel uses to measure the State of the Economy Index effects the IT market rate of change (incidentally, I don't think we have to worry about the direction of causality here -- it's not likely that IT market causes improvement of the economy).

Jun 5, 2009

Will Steve Job come back to APPLE ???????


Hoping it is true: press here for link1 press for link2 press for link3

After months of uncertainty about Steve Jobs's health, the Apple Inc. chief executive appears on track to return from medical leave this month, said people familiar with Apple.

The big question now among Apple's business partners, investors and fans: Will Mr. Jobs make his reappearance at Apple's annual software developers' conference next week in San Francisco, possibly to unveil a new iPhone?

Mr. Jobs, a survivor of pancreatic cancer, went on medical leave in January. He had earlier exhibited significant weight loss, and cited a nutritional problem related to a hormone imbalance. The unexpected departure, and the few details about ...

Jun 3, 2009

Scale of UK IT spending cuts revealed

In an article Computing.co.uk

Scale of UK IT spending cuts revealed


UK firms cut investments in hardware and software by nine per cent during the first quarter of 2009, according to the latest government figures.

With companies responding to the economic downturn, the extent of IT budget cutting has been revealed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figures show that IT has been targeted as a prime area for cost cutting. Overall business investment dropped 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2009, compared to the first quarter of 2008.

The ONS reports that private sector businesses spent £1.53bn on software and £1.54bn on hardware in the first three months of 2009, compared to £1.68bn and £1.70bn in the year-ago quarter.

Spending was also down for both software and hardware from the final quarter of 2008.

Cutbacks in the construction sector were the most swingeing – year-on-year spending on software dropped by 42 per cent, hardware by 38 per cent.

Other sectors where IT spending was slashed include manufacturing, where hardware spending fell by 32 per cent, and services firms, where software spending dropped by 18 per cent.

Despite the overall gloomy picture, in some areas IT spending increased. In distribution services, spending of software rose 24 per cent year on year; and the companies included in the ONS's "other production" category increased spending on hardware by 44 per cent and software by 24 per cent.

May 28, 2009

I am in good company when I say "we bottomed"

wow... the past 18 months reminded me about Charles Dickens (Tale of Two Cities)



-"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period "-

Have you shifted IT's attention from fighting the crisis to getting the most from the recovery???


Well we have arrived...... at least in Israel......
even... Goldman Sachs... agrees with me (look here)


Last week we saw real EBITE growth in most sectors of the Israeli Economy another useful indication that the economy is turning around.
We have bottomed (scared to put statistics but look below);
now we have to do something (look here)

We (IT) are critical in the management's team thinking and planning for the recovery (it really doesn't matter if it will be 4Q2009 or 2Q2010). IT has to start planning and doing NOW.

There are risks because we dont know if the recovery will be fast (during 2010) or it will take couple of years. This are risks that IT has to take. The reason is simple: no company can afford to take the chance of NOT being ready with new products and services when the "race" begins.

There is an excelent research by McKinsey that shows winners (coming out of recessions) and what they did. I would like to quote some of it:


-"Some companies emerge from a recession stronger and more highly valued than they were before the economy soured. By making strategic choices that sometimes defy conventional wisdom, they increase their stock market valuations relative to those of their former peers and thus gain more power to shape their industries"-


This is what successful companies did during the recession:

1.- Maintained a greater appetite for acquisitions .
2.- Were not afraid to spend their cash reserves in a recession
3.- Traded lower short-term profitability for long-term gain, refocused rather than cut spending.
4.- Spent significantly more on selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) costs .
5.-Seeked to extend their position through innovation, more than doubled their already higher-than-average level of spending on R&D.
6.-Expenditures on advertising grew (as a percentage of sales).

Well, we are not out of the recession, and I am not recommending companies to run out and spend on IT; but now IS THE TIME to decide on recovery strategies and to implement them.




May 27, 2009

NIST’s Computer Security Division (USA) standarts for cloud computing

The National Institute of Standarts and Technology of the USA under its Computer Security Division is posting its working definition of cloud computing that serves as a foundation for its upcoming publication on the topic (available below). Computer scientists at NIST developed this draft definition in collaboration with industry and government. It was developed as the foundation for a NIST special publication that will cover cloud architectures, security, and deployment strategies for the federal government. Comments on the definition can be sent to the email address: "cloud" at "nist" with a dot "gov" at the end.

NIST’s role in cloud computing is to promote the effective and secure use of the technology within government and industry by providing technical guidance and promoting standards.

Draft NIST Working Definition of Cloud Computing v13

Presentation on Effectively and Securely Using the Cloud Computing Paradigm v18

This material is public domain although attribution to NIST is requested. It may be freely duplicated and translated.

May 25, 2009

Why this is the time to grow and invest in your business


I know this are hard times and most consultants and economists say "wait we haven't hit bottom yet", "indexes are fluctuating an average of 20% each month", "dont spend the cash needed for a long downturn" and worst of all they are still talking about cutting costs in IT.

Today investments in IT capital projects and IT talent are cheap ; best talent and products at the lowest prices since 2002.

I am very surprised that the financial press has not learned anything from past recessions. Always during the last third of the recession we can see which companies are going to excel. The companies that showed "profits" only by cutting costs will find themselves losing market share. Companies that maybe sacrificed profits but grew in revenues and also revisited their marketing and product strategies will be winners when everything quiets down.
This is the time to invest in R&D, new business processes, new strategy and yes even aggressive marketing.

What all this has in common? IT projects

-"History also suggests some possible indicators of the beginning of a recovery. In three of the four most recent recessions, ...... IT spending led the way"- The McKinsey Quarterly

Cycles for IT projects >> 10 to 18 months . Why not start when everything is slow, cheap and with excellent talent? Best of all be ready when the economy starts rebounding.

To all my clients ( IT vendors and CIOs) I recommend using summer 2009 as a strategic jumping board. This is the time when you will make a difference.

CIOs: time to start new initiatives like self service, mobile, new business processes, enterprise risk management and yes a more efficient data center.

Vendor CEOs: time to invest in new products, sales training and marketing.

One thing is important START & KEEP MOVING dont get hit by the MOVING COMPETITORS.



May 24, 2009

First 12 month period with negative earnings in S&P 500


While the stock market is up sharply since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. Today's chart helps provide some perspective as to the magnitude of the current economic decline. Today's chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative

May 21, 2009

Data from Bank of Israel

The Bank of Israel's composite state-of-the-economy index is a synthetic cyclical indicator for examining the direction in which real economic activity is moving, in
real time.
The index was calculated from the monthly changes in five components that reflect different aspects of real economic activity: the index of manufacturing production; imports, excluding capital goods; trade and services revenue; the number of employee posts in the business sector; and goods exports (excluding agriculture, fuel, diamonds, and ships and aircraft). From February 2006 the index has a revised format––it now incorporates another element, services exports (tourism and other services: software, R&D, consultancy, and real estate intermediation).
STKI has found correlation between the change in the index and its IT spending forecasts.

New data from Bank of Israel shows that we are hitting bottom



















This is good news but ..............

Prof. John Kenneth Galbraith said The only function of economic forecasting (STKI-IT forecasting included)* is to make astrology look respectable”.

We will still see terrible results for Q2 and Q3 2009 but the light in the tunnel will come in Q4.
IT market in Israel will be down double digits for the year but will go into positive in 2010.

May 14, 2009

Businesses Quit Slashing IT Budgets:Worst Is Over



I just read this ( Wall Street Journal   link)
-"After reducing their budgets sharply for months, many businesses across the U.S. have stopped slashing information-technology spending, a shift that could stem revenue declines at tech companies"-
Well, in my meetings with clients I do feel a difference.
Many projects are starting, budgets are being revisited and I hope all this means we have bottomed .....
With a two year government budget (Israel) many projects will start in the public sector..... 
I also expect new projects in the telecomm (hardware replacement) and in the financial (new core business projects) sectors.




May 11, 2009

BROKEN PROMISE: SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE FEES





click to enlarge
this picture comes from:











All over the web we can see bloggers talking about the software maintenance fees that vendors  extract  annually from customers while  promising  to fund the ongoing development and enhancement of the products with that income or at least with a majority of it. 

Blogger Abridgemind graphed the results and they show exactly wht clients are angry.

Vote for Analyst and Analyst Firm of the year

 


Here is the link (press here).....  if you think we are good we would appreciate your vote 



The aim of this survey is to find out which analysts are most respected.

When answering these questions please bear in mind that 'relevance' and 'importance' can be a result of influence in procurement, market intelligence, assistance in messaging, media quotes, partnership advice etc. (i.e. success may not be just about being in a report or publication).

Only entries from ICT vendors and agencies with a valid email address will be taken into consideration. This helps ensure that all voting is legitimate. Anonymous votes or votes coming from analyst firms will be discarded.

May 9, 2009

Launch next week "MAY 18"

WolframAlpha was open for a short time yesterday  for  load testing. Within minutes, thousands of people discovered this and started exploring Wolfram|Alpha.

People connected to the Wolfram|Alpha test cluster from all over the world

They plan to launch it late next week, with the official date now set for May 18.


May 7, 2009

Comparisons between Google and WolframAlpha




(click on picture to enlarge) 

Last week, as physicist Stephen Wolfram was demonstrating his new Web-based "computation engine"--Wolfram Alpha--to the public, Google announced a data-centric service of its own. Alpha accesses databases that are maintained by Wolfram Research, or licensed from others, and deploys formulas and algorithms to compute answers for searchers.

Using some prelaunch log-in credentials provided by the Wolfram team, Technology Review decided to run their own Wolfram Alpha versus Google test. They used a handful of search terms that could produce data-centric answers and tried variations in a few cases to see what might happen.

This was an effort to get beyond the characterizations and produce some real data. They wanted to explore the claims made during my visit to Wolfram Research last week: that Alpha can add unique value in computing answers based on personal search queries. I recommend looking at the results but you should be able to test it out yourself in two or three weeks. 

May 4, 2009

They say it is going to change the internet.... will it?

Looking at the site of Wolfram Research you can see their announcement of the new software that they will announce this week. According to everybody that has seen it , it will definetly change the internet. Leaving  Google and other search machines behind.
FROM    Stephen Wolfram  blog:

Stephen Wolfram
Wolfram|Alpha Is Coming!

Wolfram|Alpha

Mathematica has been a great success in very broadly handling all kinds of formal technical systems and knowledge.

But what about everything else? What about all other systematic knowledge? All the methods and models, and data, that exists?

Fifty years ago, when computers were young, people assumed that they’d quickly be able to handle all these kinds of things.

And that one would be able to ask a computer any factual question, and have it compute the answer.

But it didn’t work out that way. Computers have been able to do many remarkable and unexpected things. But not that.

I’d always thought, though, that eventually it should be possible. And a few years ago, I realized that I was finally in a position to try to do it.

I had two crucial ingredients: Mathematica and NKS. With Mathematica, I had a symbolic language to represent anything—as well as the algorithmic power to do any kind of computation. And with NKS, I had a paradigm for understanding how all sorts of complexity could arise from simple rules.

But what about all the actual knowledge that we as humans have accumulated?

A lot of it is now on the web—in billions of pages of text. And with search engines, we can very efficiently search for specific terms and phrases in that text.

But we can’t compute from that. And in effect, we can only answer questions that have been literally asked before. We can look things up, but we can’t figure anything new out.

So how can we deal with that? Well, some people have thought the way forward must be to somehow automatically understand the natural language that exists on the web. Perhaps getting the web semantically tagged to make that easier.

But armed with Mathematica and NKS I realized there’s another way: explicitly implement methods and models, as algorithms, and explicitly curate all data so that it is immediately computable.

It’s not easy to do this. Every different kind of method and model—and data—has its own special features and character. But with a mixture of Mathematica and NKS automation, and a lot of human experts, I’m happy to say that we’ve gotten a very long way.

But, OK. Let’s say we succeed in creating a system that knows a lot, and can figure a lot out. How can we interact with it?

The way humans normally communicate is through natural language. And when one’s dealing with the whole spectrum of knowledge, I think that’s the only realistic option for communicating with computers too.

Of course, getting computers to deal with natural language has turned out to be incredibly difficult. And for example we’re still very far away from having computers systematically understand large volumes of natural language text on the web.

But if one’s already made knowledge computable, one doesn’t need to do that kind of natural language understanding.

All one needs to be able to do is to take questions people ask in natural language, and represent them in a precise form that fits into the computations one can do.

Of course, even that has never been done in any generality. And it’s made more difficult by the fact that one doesn’t just want to handle a language like English: one also wants to be able to handle all the shorthand notations that people in every possible field use.

I wasn’t at all sure it was going to work. But I’m happy to say that with a mixture of many clever algorithms and heuristics, lots of linguistic discovery and linguistic curation, and what probably amount to some serious theoretical breakthroughs, we’re actually managing to make it work.

Pulling all of this together to create a true computational knowledge engine is a very difficult task.

It’s certainly the most complex project I’ve ever undertaken. Involving far more kinds of expertise—and more moving parts—than I’ve ever had to assemble before.

And—like Mathematica, or NKS—the project will never be finished.

But I’m happy to say that we’ve almost reached the point where we feel we can expose the first part of it.

It’s going to be a website: www.wolframalpha.com. With one simple input field that gives access to a huge system, with trillions of pieces of curated data and millions of lines of algorithms.

We’re all working very hard right now to get Wolfram|Alpha ready to go live.

I think it’s going to be pretty exciting. A new paradigm for using computers and the web.

That almost gets us to what people thought computers would be able to do 50 years ago!



May 3, 2009

Finally something good: a "break in the clouds" of the economic storm

 




























All of us have been predicting negative IT spending over the past couple of months. I guess the reason for this is because there is very little good news to talk about.

But, I see some hopeful signs in the latest numbers, as did Wall Street, where stock prices are recuperating and the graph above (from the ECONOMIST) about CFO confidence. Also Finance chiefs from the G7 powers said (last week) that the global economy may be past the worst phase of a recession although recovery was not yet assured, and they pledged to make sure that big financial firms are sound. "Recent data suggest that the pace of decline in our economies has slowed and some signs of stabilization are emerging," the G7 said in a closing communique.

The U.S. Department of Commerce, in its quarterly report on gross domestic product(GDP), said that consumer spending increased by 2.2 percent in Q1 on a sequential basis, after falling 4.3 percent in last year's fourth quarter. Consumers account for about two-thirds of overall spending in the U.S., so the first-quarter jump was seen as a good omen for the economy as a whole.

Here in Israel ,based on Bank of Israel data, we can also be a little happy that the data is showing that we hit the bottom. How long and fast are we going to recover ? I don’t know.

I thought that I would have to redo my calculations and maybe IT spending would contract more than expected. Now, I think that STKI data for this year is correct.

We know that we can forecast IT spending trends by looking at the deviation from the trend-growth of the State-of-the-Economy Index. See pictures 1, 2 and 3 .

Apr 4, 2009



finally we are going to start
the difficult but important 
step to make the cloud an
open and standard world

Industries in Israel 2008-2009 (IT Spending changes)


Apr 3, 2009

Forrester's new numbers.... no problem... they will change them in a couple of weeks.... but who is counting







































How great is it to forecast and forecast and forecast until you get it right.... maybe next time ????

STKI 2009 forecasts:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/israel-it-market-2009

 

1. LOOKING AT PREDICTIONS: Dec 2007 for FY2008

Here are the 2008 IT spending predictions 

Gartner: 5.7 percent
AMR Research: 5 to 6 percent
Forrester: 4 to 6 percent
IDC: 3 to 4 percent
Computer Economics: 2.5 percent (U.S. and Canada)

STKI 2008 forecasts:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/it-market-in-israel-20082010

2.- Gartner: IT spending outlook for 2009 maybe not too grim

Analyst and research company Gartner revised its IT industry projection figures and -........ Gartner analyst Peter Sondergard says they still expect growth, and that even in the very worst case, IT spending next year will fall about 2.5 percent.

 From ZDNET:

  • Gartner had expected budgets to grow 3.3 percent in 2009.
  • Now the most likely case is IT budget growth of 2.3 percent to 0 percent.
  • The worst case is that IT budgets will be down 2.5 percent.

Forrester Research also recently cut it's projections for 2009 IT spending, but still ended up with figures in positive growth territory. 

So, if these analysts are to be believed, the business sector feeding products and services to IT should still see some growth.

3. Research firm Gartner projects that worldwide IT spending growth will slow down to 6% in 2009, though the firm says this will represent fairly robust growth in a generally poor economic environment.

Gartner projects that worldwide IT spending will total US$3.6 trillion in 2009, an increase of 6% over its projected total of $3.4 trillion in 2008. Total worldwide IT spending is expected grow by 8% this year and rose 10% in 2007 from the year before, Gartner reports.

Spending on software (8% projected growth in 2009) and IT services (7% projected growth in 2009) will be the fastest growing services, while computing hardware spending is projected to slow to just 4% growth next year, down from 10% spending growth on hardware worldwide in 2007. Telecom spending, which accounts for more than half of all IT spending worldwide, will grow by a projected 6% and will total nearly $2.1 trillion.

Jim Tully, a vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, says that while IT spending growth is projected to be slower in 2009 than in 2007 and 2008, IT spending will still be increasing much more rapidly than many sectors of the economy, which he says will continue to be affected negatively by the United States' recent economic downturn.

4. Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending to Decline 3.8 Per Cent in 2009

In a broad-based slowdown, the forecasts for all four of the key market sectors of hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications have been revised downward, with only software spending growth remaining positive (see Table 1).

Table 1
Worldwide IT Spending Forecast (Billions of US Dollars)

 

 2008Spending

 2008Growth (%)

  2009Spending

 2009Growth (%)

Computing Hardware

381.0

2.8

324.3

-14.9

Software

221.9

10.3

222.6

0.3

IT Services

809.5

7.6

796.1

-1.7

Telecom

1,948.0

5.6

1,891.2

-2.9

All IT

3,360.3

6.1

3,234.0

-3.8

Source: Gartner (March 2009)


5.- Forrester is also changing its forecasts


Forrester Research Inc. is predicting that IT spending will drop by 3.1% this year, in stark contrast to its previous projection of a 1.6% increase.

Computer equipment sales will be hardest hit in 2009, with a 6.8% decline, followed by a 7% jump next year.

Telecommunications, videoconferencing and mobile technologies will also suffer, dropping by 7.8%.

Software revenue will drop 0.4% this year, with steadier income streams such as maintenance fees and subscriptions balancing a drop in license sales.

Forrester is calling for a recovery in 2010, with computer and peripheral sales to grow by 8.8 percent, communications equipment sales to grow by 4.8 percent, software sales to grow by 6.3 percent, IT consulting services sales to grow by 7.4 percent and IT outsourcing sales to grow by 6.5 percent. 

In fact, the only positive growth area in Forrester’s forecast is outsourcing (and that’s because it cuts costs).

April 1, 2009 (IDG News Service) 

6.- The new IDC Black Book forecasts  (25/2/2009)

IDC is now forecasting year-over-year growth of 0.1% in overall IT spending, down from the November forecast of 0.9% growth. Hardware will experience a sharp decline in spending with -16% growth while software and IT services spending will grow by 4% and 3% respectively.

7.- Goldman Sachs and IHS Global Insight separately released findings that point to a bigger decline in U.S. IT spending this year than previously expected. Goldman Sachs has revised its global 2009 spending forecast downward from -4% to -9%, citing declining revisions from key indicators such as capital spending, corporate profits and the firm's most recent IT Spending Survey results.

 


Mar 31, 2009

Israeli Software Vendors

For a full list of software vendors in the different categories, please go to the presentations .

Israeli VAS vendors


For a full list of value added service vendors in the different categories, please go to the presentations .


Israeli Hardware Vendors























For a full list of hardware vendors in the different categories, please go to the presentations .

VENDORS according to all categories





















Clients can download the vendor tiers in 

FORMATS for forecasts and Vendor Tiering




















For a full list of  vendors in the different categories, please go to the presentations .

Value Added Services Market Forecast for Israel








STKI forecast
_______________________________________________________

GARTNER has just posted the following (31/3/2009).... FINALLY they see a problem in the economy 

 


 2008Growth (%)

 

 2009Growth (%)






IT Services

7.6

- 1.7






Source: Gartner,31/3 2009

Forrester Research Inc. is predicting that IT consulting services will decline by -1.9% and IT outsourcing sales to grow by 2.1%.

Source: Forrester Research April 1, 2009


IDC is now forecasting that IT services spending will grow by  3%.

Source IDC 25/2/2009

Software Market Forecat for Israel








STKI forecast
_______________________________________________________

GARTNER has just posted the following (31/3/2009).... FINALLY they see a problem in the economy

 

 

 2008Growth (%)

  

 2009Growth (%)





Software

10.3

0.3






Source: Gartner,31/3 2009

Forrester Research Inc. is predicting that software revenue will drop 0.4% this year

Source: Forrester Research April 1, 2009

IDC is now forecasting software sales will grow by 4%

Source IDC 25/2/2009


Hardware Market Forecasts for Israel








STKI forecast
_______________________________________________________



GARTNER has just posted the following (31/3/2009).... FINALLY they see a problem in the economy 

 

 

 2008Growth (%)

  

 2009Growth (%)

Computing Hardware


2.8

- 14.9







Source: Gartner,31/3 2009


Forrester Research Inc. is predicting that computer equipment sales will be hardest hit in 2009, with a 6.8% decline.

Source: Forrester Research April 1, 2009


IDC is now forecasting hardware will experience a sharp decline in spending with -16% growth

Source IDC 25/2/2009

STKI CATEGORIES (Value Added Services)

STKI CATEGORIES (Hardware and Software)

INDUSTRIES AS PERCENT OF TOTAL IT SPENDING


















Out of the 100% pie of IT spending (without salaries)

History and Forecast of IT spending in Israel


















20 years of data: Spending in IT (1989-2009) according to hardware, software and value added services.
Comparison of spending 2003 (First Ice Age) and 2009 (second Ice Age)

STKI DATA vs Bank of Israel


















When we check our data we look at Bank of Israel data about the state of the economy. We have found that Deviation from the trend (*10) data helps us identify changes and their magnitudes.

STKI Forecast for 2009



Last year, March 2008,  we forecasted a IT market of small growth. When checking the data we found (for the first time in 15 years) that we had to correct the data. The last quarter of 2008 was much worse than our forecasts. This year, we see that it might go as bad as -20%.
STKI uses interviews with both users of technology and vendors to forecast. -"This year very few players could forecast what will happen in 2H2009."-






Mar 28, 2009

The Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009














The Global Information Technology Report 2008-2009

GITR 2008 - 2009 cover The Report stresses the importance of ICT as a catalyst for growth in the current global turmoil

The Report is produced by the World Economic Forum in cooperation with INSEAD, the leading international business school, and is sponsored by Cisco Systems.

The Report underlines that good education fundamentals and high levels of technological readiness and innovation are essential engines of growth needed to overcome the current economic crisis. Under the theme “Mobility in a Networked World”, this year’s Report places a particular focus on the relationship and interrelations between mobility and ICT.

With record coverage of 134 economies worldwide, the Report remains the world’s most comprehensive and authoritative international assessment of the impact of ICT on the development process and the competitiveness of nations.



Israel, at 25th, remains the leader in the region, although only by a small margin. A member of the top 20 from 2001 to 2007 consecutively, the country drops seven places because of a poorer assessment in individual readiness (34th) and individual usage (28th). 

Both the market environment (17th) and the political and regulatory framework (34th) deteriorate significantly.

 This does not put into question the fundamentals of  Israel’s prowess in networked readiness and innovation, confirmed by its impressive 5th position in the world for the number of utility patents (154.3 in 2007), coupled with its 24th position for high-tech exports (12.7% of total exports).

Indeed, Israel’s recent development history is an inspiring example of a small, resource-poor country turned into a global high-tech powerhouse in less than 30 years, thanks to the government’s coherent vision and strategy.

CONCLUSION: 

>>As we see Israel is great in:

1. Quality of academic research institutions.......... 3

2. Patents ..........................................................5.

3. Govt. procurement of of technology ...................8

4. VC Capital......................................................8

5. Company spend. on R&D ................................8


>>> Israel is terrible in almost all other categories especially:

1. Quality of education..... which means we wont have a "new" generation for the above 5 points 

2. With all the excess  lawyers .... we are at the end of the line in: time required to start a business and  time to enforce a contract

Mar 27, 2009

7th annual STKI Brunch in my farm

























Thanks to everyone that came to my "farm" and the STKI Brunch 2009
pictures can be downloaded



Mar 25, 2009

Israel: IT spending per capita and per employee



















click to enlarge 

Interesting to see how IT spending differed per industry



















click (on the picture) in order to enlarge 

Press Coverage about the STKI Summit






















FOR COMPARISON... LOOK AT LAST YEARS FORECASTS IN THE PRESS (THEMARKER AND GLOBES)

Mar 24, 2009

STKI Summit 2009 thanks to all the 1200 people who came


1. My presentation can be seen at:

2. STKI clients can download all presentations at  

3. Pictures of the SUMMIT can be seen:


STKI's new collaboration and archive tool.



link







STKI is using  "docsNtalks" as a collaboration network and online archive for documents and presentations from conferences as well as a tool for ongoing projects such as weekly seminars, group meetings, think-tanks and "roundtables".

Mar 19, 2009

GARTNER published yesterday a new forecast.... how great it is to forecast different numbers every two weeks... and people still buy it

Basically:  the Israeli Office translated the english report into Hebrew and called it an Israeli study and sold it? refunds by next forecast? or.....

MARCH 13, 2009  .......... The new (?)  forecast suggests IT spending ...........

Gartner says it now expects global IT spending to be down 3.7% in 2009, a sharp reduction from its previous forecast, which had called for growth of 2.2%.........................................

Gartner cut its 2009 forecast by 7.7% .........................

Gartner now says that spending in 2008 was up 6%.....................




חברת המחקר גרטנר עדכנה אתמול (ד') את תחזיותיה לגבי הוצאות המיחשוב העולמיות הצפויות השנה ובחמש השנים הקרובות, והפחיתה את ההערכה שלה ב-5.9%. כך, בניגוד לתחזית הקודמת, שנערכה ברבעון האחרון של 2008, אשר צפתה צמיחה חיובית בהוצאות ה-IT העולמיות בסדר גודל של 2.2%, הרי שאתמול מסרה החברה, כי צפויה צמיחה שלילית של 3.7%.
על פי חברת המחקר, "בשנת 2009 תהיה הירידה בהוצאות המיחשוב ברחבי העולם, גדולה אף מזו שנרשמה בשנת 2001, לאחר ההתפוצצות של בועת האינטרנט". כך, התחזית המעודכנת צופה סדר גודל של הוצאה עולמית על IT של 3.234 טריליון דולרים, בניגוד לתחזית הקודמת, מלפני שלושה חודשים, שצפתה הוצאות IT עולמיות של 3.504 טריליון דולרים.
ברבעון הרביעי של שנת 2008 עוד העריכה גרטנר, כי בשנת 2008 עלו ההוצאות על מיחשוב ברחבי העולם ב-7.5%. כעת, העדכון מהרבעון הראשון של 2009 כולל תיקון גם בנתון זה, ולפיו הסתכמה העלייה בהוצאות המיחשוב העולמי בשנת 2008 ב-6% בלבד, ועמדה על 3.358 טריליון דולרים.
לגבי ישראל, אמר ל-DailyMaily ברוך גינדין, מנכ"ל גרטנר המזה"ת, כי "בארץ צפויה צמיחה שלילית בהוצאות ה-IT בטווח של 2.5% עד 3.7%". לדבריו, אחוז הגידול השלילי יהיה שונה ממגזר תעשייתי אחד למשנהו. גינדין הוסיף, כי "ענפי התקשורת והמוליכים למחצה ייפגעו יותר מאשר ענף מיקור החוץ ושירותי ה-IT". הוא ציין, כי בישראל, מהווה תעשיית ההיי-טק כ-55% מפעילות היצוא. "פיחות של יותר מפי שניים בצמיחה", אמר, "יפגע בייצוא ובהשקעה במיזמים חדשים ותהיינה לכך השלכות עצומות על המשק הישראלי".
בשנת 2010 צופה גרטנר שהוצאות המיחשוב ברחבי העולם תעלנה ב-2.4%, לעומת צמיחה של 5% שנצפתה בתחזית הקודמת. בשנת 2011 צופה חברת המחקר גידול בהוצאות ה-IT של 5.1%, במקום 5.5% בתחזית הקודמת. התחזית אופטימית יותר רק לגבי 2012, אז צופה גרטנר גידול של 5.5%, לעומת 5.3% בתחזית הקודמת על הוצאות ה-IT העולמיות.
עקב ההאטה הכלכלית העולמית, צופה חברת המחקר, כי הירידה שתירשם בשנת 2009 בהוצאות על ציוד חומרה, תוכנות, שירותי מיחשוב, וטלקומוניקציה - תהיה גדולה אף יותר מהירידה אשר נרשמה בשנת 2001, לאחר ההתפוצצות של בועת האינטרנט. "ההוצאות של החברות העסקיות והצרכנים הפרטיים על מיחשוב תגענה השנה לשפל", כתבו האנליסטים, "וגם כאשר תיראה סוף סוף התאוששות, בשנת 2010, הקצב שלה יהיה איטי".
ירידה חדה במיוחד נרשמה, על פי נתוני גרטנר, בארה"ב ובמערב אירופה. האנליסטים אינם מגלים אופטימיות רבה ביחס לתוכנית התמריצים של הממשל האמריקני, ומעריכים כי "לא יהיה בה די, על מנת להתגבר על המציאות הכלכלית הקשה בטווח הקצר". עד שלא יתייצבו שוקי ההון, לא צופים בגרטנר התאוששות בקצב הצמיחה של התל"ג.
עקב ההאטה בהוצאות על מיחשוב מעריכים בחברת המחקר, כי ספקיות המיחשוב תאלצנה למצוא הזדמנויות לצמיחה בשווקים חדשים - למשל במדינות מתפתחות - וכי קצב ההחלפה של מחשבים ותוכנות יואט, בעיקר בשווקים מפותחים. "צרכנים פרטיים וחברות עסקיות יוסיפו להעדיף מוצרים זולים יותר, ישתמשו תקופות ארוכות יותר בציוד הקיים ויאריכו חוזים והסכמי רכש קיימים. מחלקות ה-IT תיאלצנה לקצץ תקציבים", נכתב בתחזית המעודכנת.
ובכל זאת, יש גם נקודות אור: חברות עדיין יצטרכו לתמוך בתשתיות מיחשוב מורכבות, אשר הן חיוניות לפעילות השוטפת. כך, נכתב, ניתן יהיה למצוא הזדמנויות שיסייעו ללקוחות לחסוך הוצאות, לעמוד בתקנות ולמצות את המירב מתוכניות התמריצים.

STKI first report (in hebrew) about Israel's IT spending in 2009









article from Maariv

From The Marker.... about STKI SUMMIT 2009 

http://it.themarker.com/tmit/article/6175

http://www.themarker.com/tmc/articleCom.jhtml?ArtID=bh20090319_1017

"זהו אינו מיתון", אומר ד"ר ג'ימי שוורצקוף, מנכ"ל חברת STKI, "זוהי רעידת אדמה, החלפת מודלים עסקיים, ובמילים אחרות: Restart". על פי תוצאות מחקר STKI השנתי בקרב ארגוני IT מובילים בשוק הישראלי, שוקהמחשוב צפוי להתכווץ משמעותית בשנת 2009 לעומת 2008 בסדר גודל של 13% ויעמוד על כ-4 מיליארד $ לעומת 4.7 מיליארד $ ב-2008. הקיצוץ התקציבי והאווירה הכלכלית גורמת למנמ"רים לשנות מיקוד, כאשר המיקוד העיקרי במהלך 2009 יהיה "לעשות סדר פסח" בנכסי ה-IT.

במיתון הקודם, בין השנים 2001-2003, המיתון היה תחום בתוך גבולות תחום מערכות המידע, בתקופה זו ראינו ירידה של 40% בהוצאות המחשוב. עם היציאה מהמיתון, בין השנים 2004-2008 הייתה עלייה דרסטית של 70% בהוצאות המחשוב בישראל. בזמן עלייה זו, התרחשו רכישות ומיזוגים משמעותיים של חברות גדולות בשוק ה-IT מה שהביא ל-5 חברות ענק בשוק ה-IT בישראל שמכתיבות את הלך הרוח בתחום.

לאור רעידת האדמה אותה אנו חווים כיום, ארגונים הקפיאו פרויקטים, עצרו רכש של חומרה וחבילות תוכנה, וכיום שוקלים מחדש את מערך יחידות ה-IT.

אחת מהבעיות מולן ארגונים ניצבים כיום החלו עוד ב'עידן השפע' והיא רמת ניצול נמוכה של משאבי המחשוב (הן חומרה והן אפליקציות - עודף רישיונות תוכנה שאינן מנוצלות או כפילות של כלים שונים למטרות דומות). המשבר גורם למנהלים להתייחס ליחידות IT כשם שמהנדסי ייצור מתייחסים למשאבי ייצור – דרישה להגיע לניצולת בתהליכי הייצור של 90% ויותר.

שוק החומרה בישראל:

בתחום החומרה המגמות הבולטות הן: סטנדרטיזציה וקונסולידציה של ספקים וכלים. בתחום השרתים הסטנדרטיים אנו צופים לירידת ערך שוק דרמטית הרבה יותר מהירידה הכללית של השוק בסדר גודל של כ-30%, וזאת מכיוון שנכון להיום בתחום זה קיים תת-ניצול משמעותי של משאבים. שרתים רבים עובדים בארגון בניצולת (בזמן השיא) של 40% ופחות. משמעות הדבר היא שאם חברה השקיעה במשך 4 השנים האחרונות 100 מיליון ₪ בשרתים, זה אומר שרק פחות מ 40 מיליון ₪ מנוצלים.

עם זאת, בתחום זה ישנה מצוקה של כוח אדם: ע"פ תוצאות מחקר STKI, חבר אחד בצוות מחשוב מטפל בממוצע ב-100 שרתי windows (לעומת 90 שרתים בשנה שעברה).

בתחום האחסון ישנה מגמה בולטת כבר מספר שנים של גידול עצום בשטחי האחסון מצד אחד, ומצד שני ירידה בעלות ממוצעת ליחידת אחסון בקצב של כ-35% בשנה. זוהי מגמה "טיפוסית" של השנים האחרונות. המשבר משפיע כקטליזאטור בתחום זה, כבר עתה אנו חשים בירידת מחירים מוגברת שייתכן שתוצאתה תהיה האצת קצב הירידה בעלות (לשם המחשה, במיתון הקודם בשנת 2002 ירדו המחירים בקצב של כ-50% בשנה אחת, השנה ייתכן שעוד נעבור רמות אלה). עקב צריכה גבוהה יותר של אחסון, ב-STKI צופים ששוק זה בסה"כ לא יצנח בצורה דרמטית (ירידה של 5%). כמו כן, קיים מחסור חריף בכ"א מיומן ובהקצאת תקנים בארגון לתחום האחסון. כתוצאה מכך, היו גם בשנת 2008 תקלות IT מערכתיות שקשורות לסביבת האחסון.

בתחום תחנות הקצה (מחשבים שולחניים וניידים), התקשורת והמדפסות תהיה ירידה של כ-20-25% כאשר מגמה חשובה בתחום היא התגברות השימוש במחשבים ניידים על חשבון מחשבים שולחניים וכניסה של  מחשבי netbooks.  בהתייחס לתחום התקשורת הארגונית, השנה ראינו המשך במגמת ההתכנסות בין פלטפורמות תשתית התקשורת לבין שירותי הערך המוסף שהן מספקות. מתגי התקשורת ממשיכים להוסיף לעצמם "שכל ארגוני" כמו יכולות ניהול וניטור מורכבות יותר, יכולות שונות של אבטחת מידע ויכולות עבודה בתצורה וירטואלית על בסיס שיתופי פעולה מסקרים בין יצרני תקשורת כמו סיסקו, ג'וניפר HP ואחרים עם VMWARE ו MICROSOFT.

בתחום הטלפוניה הארגונית אפשר לראות המשך למגמת המעבר לתשתית ארגונית מבוססת IP. מגמה זו בולטת במיוחד בשני מצבים עיקרים: מעבר של הארגון למשרדים חדשים או עקב בעיות תפקוד במרכזיות המסורתיות. תחום נוסף שבולט בתחום התקשורת הפנים ארגונית הוא שילוב של פלטפורמות תקשורת אחודה (Unified Communication) ככלי עבודה ארגוני לכל דבר.

 

עולם ה IT הירוק המשיך לקבל חשיפה גדולה בישראל, אם כי לא הדאגה לגורל כדור הארץ היא זו שמטרידה את רוב הארגונים בארץ אלא הרצון להתייעל ולחסוך. המיתון והצורך הארגוני לחסוך בעלויות הביא לעליה בביקוש לפתרונות חסכוניים הן ברמת החומרה והן ברמת התוכנה. רמת המודעות בישראל לטרנד הירוק גבוהה מבעבר, אולם יש תחושה שהעלאת נושא זה כקונספט מתקדם מיצתה את עצמה. מנהלי התשתיות בישראל מכירים מצוין את קשת האפשרויות הירוקות לחיסכון וחלק מהארגונים אף מדווחים על אינפלציה מסוימת בגישת הספקים לתחום והפיכתו למקדם מכירות: "היום כל פיתרון חדש נמכר תחת כותרת ירוקה".

שוק התוכנה:

שוק התוכנה צפוי לרדת ב12% ב 2009 לעומת 2008.  אחת מהבעיות הגדולות בתחום זה הנה עודף רישיונות שקיים כיום בקרב ארגונים, עליהם ארגונים משלמים אחוזי תחזוקה גבוהים, ולעתים גם לתוכנות בהן אינם משתמשים / עושים שימוש מוגבל ביותר. מגמה נוספת מעניינת בתחום הנה הסתכלות גם על תוכנות קוד פתוח (דבר עדיין די נדיר בארגוני enterprises בישראל), אך בשוק הישראלי הסתכלות זו תהיה מוגבלת בתחילה לתחומים ספציפיים.

שוק תוכנות התשתית (מערכות הפעלה, מסדי נתונים וכד') יקטן ב-16%, תחום כלי ניהול IT (מערכות שו"ב, HELP DESK, וכלי ניהול IT, ואבטחת מידע) יירד בכ-10% אך 2009 תהווה שנת הכנה לקראת השקעה מוגברת בתחום זה בשנים הבאות, כי באמצעות השקעה בתחום זה ניתן לבצע את אותו "סדר פסח" אותו ארגונים צריכים לעשות במערך ה-IT