Apr 3, 2009

How great is it to forecast and forecast and forecast until you get it right.... maybe next time ????

STKI 2009 forecasts:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/israel-it-market-2009

 

1. LOOKING AT PREDICTIONS: Dec 2007 for FY2008

Here are the 2008 IT spending predictions 

Gartner: 5.7 percent
AMR Research: 5 to 6 percent
Forrester: 4 to 6 percent
IDC: 3 to 4 percent
Computer Economics: 2.5 percent (U.S. and Canada)

STKI 2008 forecasts:

http://www.slideshare.net/jimmyschwarzkopf/it-market-in-israel-20082010

2.- Gartner: IT spending outlook for 2009 maybe not too grim

Analyst and research company Gartner revised its IT industry projection figures and -........ Gartner analyst Peter Sondergard says they still expect growth, and that even in the very worst case, IT spending next year will fall about 2.5 percent.

 From ZDNET:

  • Gartner had expected budgets to grow 3.3 percent in 2009.
  • Now the most likely case is IT budget growth of 2.3 percent to 0 percent.
  • The worst case is that IT budgets will be down 2.5 percent.

Forrester Research also recently cut it's projections for 2009 IT spending, but still ended up with figures in positive growth territory. 

So, if these analysts are to be believed, the business sector feeding products and services to IT should still see some growth.

3. Research firm Gartner projects that worldwide IT spending growth will slow down to 6% in 2009, though the firm says this will represent fairly robust growth in a generally poor economic environment.

Gartner projects that worldwide IT spending will total US$3.6 trillion in 2009, an increase of 6% over its projected total of $3.4 trillion in 2008. Total worldwide IT spending is expected grow by 8% this year and rose 10% in 2007 from the year before, Gartner reports.

Spending on software (8% projected growth in 2009) and IT services (7% projected growth in 2009) will be the fastest growing services, while computing hardware spending is projected to slow to just 4% growth next year, down from 10% spending growth on hardware worldwide in 2007. Telecom spending, which accounts for more than half of all IT spending worldwide, will grow by a projected 6% and will total nearly $2.1 trillion.

Jim Tully, a vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, says that while IT spending growth is projected to be slower in 2009 than in 2007 and 2008, IT spending will still be increasing much more rapidly than many sectors of the economy, which he says will continue to be affected negatively by the United States' recent economic downturn.

4. Gartner Says Worldwide IT Spending to Decline 3.8 Per Cent in 2009

In a broad-based slowdown, the forecasts for all four of the key market sectors of hardware, software, IT services and telecommunications have been revised downward, with only software spending growth remaining positive (see Table 1).

Table 1
Worldwide IT Spending Forecast (Billions of US Dollars)

 

 2008Spending

 2008Growth (%)

  2009Spending

 2009Growth (%)

Computing Hardware

381.0

2.8

324.3

-14.9

Software

221.9

10.3

222.6

0.3

IT Services

809.5

7.6

796.1

-1.7

Telecom

1,948.0

5.6

1,891.2

-2.9

All IT

3,360.3

6.1

3,234.0

-3.8

Source: Gartner (March 2009)


5.- Forrester is also changing its forecasts


Forrester Research Inc. is predicting that IT spending will drop by 3.1% this year, in stark contrast to its previous projection of a 1.6% increase.

Computer equipment sales will be hardest hit in 2009, with a 6.8% decline, followed by a 7% jump next year.

Telecommunications, videoconferencing and mobile technologies will also suffer, dropping by 7.8%.

Software revenue will drop 0.4% this year, with steadier income streams such as maintenance fees and subscriptions balancing a drop in license sales.

Forrester is calling for a recovery in 2010, with computer and peripheral sales to grow by 8.8 percent, communications equipment sales to grow by 4.8 percent, software sales to grow by 6.3 percent, IT consulting services sales to grow by 7.4 percent and IT outsourcing sales to grow by 6.5 percent. 

In fact, the only positive growth area in Forrester’s forecast is outsourcing (and that’s because it cuts costs).

April 1, 2009 (IDG News Service) 

6.- The new IDC Black Book forecasts  (25/2/2009)

IDC is now forecasting year-over-year growth of 0.1% in overall IT spending, down from the November forecast of 0.9% growth. Hardware will experience a sharp decline in spending with -16% growth while software and IT services spending will grow by 4% and 3% respectively.

7.- Goldman Sachs and IHS Global Insight separately released findings that point to a bigger decline in U.S. IT spending this year than previously expected. Goldman Sachs has revised its global 2009 spending forecast downward from -4% to -9%, citing declining revisions from key indicators such as capital spending, corporate profits and the firm's most recent IT Spending Survey results.

 


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