Based on the many meetings, client technological road maps, round tables and social occassions this last month I can start "forecasting" an expansion in the market after over one year of downturn that even felt like a meltdown (Q42008 and Q12009).
And as I wrote in several occasions the IT start of expansion in Israel will probably start after the high Jewish holidays of September and October.
The picture (above) shows the 1990-2009 yearly data (STKI IT market forecast and BoI data):
1. STKI identified a high startistical correlation between it's IT rate of change numbers and the numbers given by the Bank of Israel (composite state-of-the-economy index (deviation from the trend) based on the Markov regime-switching model).
2.- The composite index and especially the deviation from the trend numbers gives an accurate description of the business cycle ex post facto, with regard to their high correlation with the GDP, final uses and employment series, and with regard to identifying the turning points in the cycle in real time. The probability of recession successfully detects a downturn immediately, and more sharply about two months after its onset. The start of expansion, however, takes longer to detect. Bank of Israel page on the subject.
ד"ר ג'ימי (חיים) שוורצקוף
has worked during the last 30 years in all areas of Computer Information Services:
IT Analyst at STKI and META Group Israel and was named a META Group Research Fellow. Also worked in Digital Equipment and Andersen Consulting. Founded several IT startups. Also as an academic researcher in Entrepreneurship he has published in the Academy of Management and Babson Conferences among others.
Major in the reserves, Israel Defense Forces, served in the elite Sayeret Egoz unit and later in the MoD-R&D unit. Registered Engineer (IS22881)& member of MENSA Israel.
Dr. Schwarzkopf received BSE and MSE degrees (Systems Engineering) from the University of Central Florida. Got his MSIA (Management Information Systems) and ABD (PhD Program) in Systems Science from Carnegie Mellon University. His doctorate (Management/ Entrepreneurship) he got from Case Western Reserve University.